Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · fair 1.82
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓13% · fair 7.82
Homeboyz vs GOR Mahia preview and prediction
The match
Homeboyz host GOR Mahia in the FKF Premier League on Sunday 3 May, with kick-off at 13:00 (WAT) at Bukhungu Stadium. Homeboyz are 17th with 5 points from 5 games (in the bottom three), while GOR Mahia sit 1st on 13 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Homeboyz's last 5: DDWWD Most recently they drew with KCB 1–1 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
GOR Mahia's last 5: WDLDW Most recently they beat AFC Leopards 1–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.0 for Homeboyz and 1.4 for GOR Mahia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 45%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Homeboyz 36%, draw 11%, GOR Mahia 53%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance. Predicted score: Homeboyz 1–1 GOR Mahia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Homeboyz36%fair 2.78
Draw11%fair 9.09
GOR Mahia53%fair 1.89
2.36Expected goals
1.01Homeboyz xG
1.35GOR Mahia xG
45%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–113%
1–09%
0–09%
1–29%
0–29%
From our goals model: Homeboyz 1.0 – 1.4 GOR Mahia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
GOR Mahia to win✓
53%
1.89
–
Double chance
Either team to win✓
89%
1.12
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT GOR Mahia / FT GOR Mahia✗
26%
3.82
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
13%
7.82
–
Form
Homeboyz – last 6
DDWWDL
26 Apr
@ KCB
1–1
D
8 Apr
@ Nairobi United
2–2
D
4 Apr
vs Mathare United
3–0
W
28 Mar
@ Posta Rangers FC
2–0
W
22 Mar
vs Bandari
1–1
D
15 Mar
@ Tusker
0–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
GOR Mahia – last 6
WDLDWD
26 Apr
@ AFC Leopards
1–0
W
19 Apr
vs Bandari
0–0
D
14 Apr
@ Tusker
0–1
L
4 Apr
vs Kariobangi Sharks
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ Ulinzi Stars
3–1
W
5 Mar
@ Posta Rangers FC
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Homeboyz and GOR Mahia.
On our numbers Homeboyz have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 11% and GOR Mahia 53%.
How many goals will there be in Homeboyz vs GOR Mahia?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Homeboyz vs GOR Mahia?
Our predicted score is Homeboyz 1–1 GOR Mahia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Homeboyz vs GOR Mahia?
Homeboyz vs GOR Mahia (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Bukhungu Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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