Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.36 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.36Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultHomeboyz to win ✗44% · @2.35
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · fair 1.84
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.10
Tusker vs Homeboyz preview and prediction
The match
The FKF Premier League sees Tusker take on Homeboyz on Sunday 15 March, kicking off at 12:00 (WAT) at Police Sacco Stadium. Tusker are 11th with 6 points from 4 games (in the bottom half), while Homeboyz sit 17th on 5 points (in the bottom three). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Tusker's last 3: WWL Most recently they beat Kariobangi Sharks 2–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Homeboyz's last 4: WDWW Most recently they beat APS Bomet 2–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Homeboyz arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 2.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 0.9 for Tusker and 1.2 for Homeboyz. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 67% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Tusker 32%, draw 24%, Homeboyz 44%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 67% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Tusker 0–1 Homeboyz. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tusker32%fair 3.08 · @3.00
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @2.80
Homeboyz44%fair 2.29 · @2.35
2.11Expected goals
0.95Tusker xG
1.17Homeboyz xG
46%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–113%
0–012%
1–011%
0–28%
1–28%
From our goals model: Tusker 0.9 – 1.2 Homeboyz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Homeboyz to win✗
44%
2.29
2.35
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.33
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.36
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Homeboyz / FT Homeboyz✗
23%
4.31
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.10
–
Form
Tusker – last 3
WWL
2 Mar
@ Kariobangi Sharks
2–1
W
25 Feb
vs Murang'a SEAL
1–0
W
21 Feb
@ Shabana
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Homeboyz – last 4
WDWW
2 Mar
vs APS Bomet
2–1
W
26 Feb
@ Ulinzi Stars
1–1
D
20 Feb
vs Sofapaka
2–0
W
13 Feb
@ Bidco United
4–1
W
2.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tusker and Homeboyz.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Tusker vs Homeboyz?
On our numbers Tusker have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Homeboyz 44%.
How many goals will there be in Tusker vs Homeboyz?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tusker vs Homeboyz?
Our predicted score is Tusker 0–1 Homeboyz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Tusker vs Homeboyz?
Tusker vs Homeboyz (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Police Sacco Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Kariobangi Sharks2