Newcastle Jets vs Adelaide United preview and prediction
The match
Newcastle Jets host Adelaide United in the A League on Saturday 11 April, with kick-off at 08:00 (WAT) at McDonald Jones Stadium. Newcastle Jets are 10th with 2 points from 4 games (in the bottom three), while Adelaide United sit 12th on 1 points (in the bottom three). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Newcastle Jets's last 5: LWLWD Most recently they lost to Macarthur 2–3 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Adelaide United's last 5: DWDDD Most recently they drew with Auckland 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 1.9 for Newcastle Jets and 1.7 for Adelaide United. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score in 71% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Newcastle Jets 44%, draw 20%, Adelaide United 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (71%) at 1.28.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Newcastle Jets 2–1 Adelaide United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Newcastle Jets44%fair 2.29 · @2.12
Draw20%fair 5.06 · @4.20
Adelaide United37%fair 2.73 · @2.78
3.62Expected goals
1.90Newcastle Jets xG
1.72Adelaide United xG
71%Both score
72%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–19%
2–18%
1–28%
2–27%
3–15%
1–05%
From our goals model: Newcastle Jets 1.9 – 1.7 Adelaide United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Newcastle Jets to win✗
44%
2.29
2.12
Double chance
Either team to win✗
80%
1.25
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
71%
1.40
1.28
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
1.08
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.28
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
52%
1.92
1.70
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
35%
2.82
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Newcastle Jets / FT Newcastle Jets✗
26%
3.84
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.03
–
Form
Newcastle Jets – last 6
LWLWDW
2 Apr
@ Macarthur
2–3
L
22 Mar
@ Sydney
2–1
W
14 Mar
vs Auckland
1–2
L
7 Mar
vs Western Sydney Wanderers
2–1
W
28 Feb
@ Central Coast Mariners
0–0
D
22 Feb
vs Macarthur
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Adelaide United – last 6
DWDDDW
3 Apr
vs Auckland
1–1
D
20 Mar
@ Western Sydney Wanderers
4–2
W
14 Mar
@ Central Coast Mariners
1–1
D
6 Mar
vs Wellington Phoenix
1–1
D
27 Feb
@ Melbourne Victory
1–1
D
20 Feb
vs Perth Glory
4–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Newcastle Jets and Adelaide United.
What is the prediction for Newcastle Jets vs Adelaide United?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Newcastle Jets vs Adelaide United?
On our numbers Newcastle Jets have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Adelaide United 37%.
How many goals will there be in Newcastle Jets vs Adelaide United?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 71% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle Jets vs Adelaide United?
Our predicted score is Newcastle Jets 2–1 Adelaide United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Newcastle Jets vs Adelaide United?
Newcastle Jets vs Adelaide United (A League) kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 08:00 (West Africa Time) at McDonald Jones Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
