Auckland vs Melbourne Victory prediction & analysis
78%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Melbourne Victory to win @ 3.25 – our chance 33% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAuckland to win ✗46% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✗80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.93
Auckland vs Melbourne Victory preview and prediction
The match
Melbourne Victory travel to Go Media Stadium in the A League on Saturday 11 April (06:00 WAT) to face Auckland. Auckland are 8th with 5 points from 4 games (in the bottom half), while Melbourne Victory sit 9th on 3 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Auckland's last 5: DLWDW Most recently they drew with Adelaide United 1–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Melbourne Victory's last 5: LWWDD Most recently they lost to Wellington Phoenix 0–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.6 for Auckland and 1.3 for Melbourne Victory. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 56%, both teams to score at 62%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Melbourne Victory to win at 3.25 – 33% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Auckland 1–1 Melbourne Victory. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Auckland46%fair 2.15 · @2.05
Draw20%fair 4.93 · @3.65
Melbourne Victory33%fair 3.01 · @3.25
2.89Expected goals
1.59Auckland xG
1.30Melbourne Victory xG
62%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–09%
1–27%
0–17%
2–07%
From our goals model: Auckland 1.6 – 1.3 Melbourne Victory expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Auckland to win✗
46%
2.15
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✗
80%
1.25
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.62
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
1.48
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Auckland / FT Auckland✗
27%
3.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.93
–
Form
Auckland – last 6
DLWDWW
3 Apr
@ Adelaide United
1–1
D
21 Mar
vs Macarthur
1–2
L
14 Mar
@ Newcastle Jets
2–1
W
8 Mar
vs Perth Glory
2–2
D
28 Feb
vs Melbourne City
3–0
W
21 Feb
@ Wellington Phoenix
5–0
W
2.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Melbourne Victory – last 6
LWWDDW
5 Apr
vs Wellington Phoenix
0–1
L
21 Mar
vs Central Coast Mariners
4–1
W
15 Mar
vs Macarthur
4–1
W
7 Mar
@ Sydney
2–2
D
27 Feb
vs Adelaide United
1–1
D
21 Feb
@ Melbourne City
3–1
W
2.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Auckland and Melbourne Victory.
What is the prediction for Auckland vs Melbourne Victory?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Auckland vs Melbourne Victory?
On our numbers Auckland have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Melbourne Victory 33%.
How many goals will there be in Auckland vs Melbourne Victory?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Auckland vs Melbourne Victory?
Our predicted score is Auckland 1–1 Melbourne Victory, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Auckland vs Melbourne Victory?
Auckland vs Melbourne Victory (A League) kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time) at Go Media Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
