Value bet: Səbail to win @ 2.90 – our chance 40% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSəbail to win ✗40% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · fair 1.98
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 9.74
Mingəçevir vs Səbail preview and prediction
The match
The Birinci Dasta sees Mingəçevir take on Səbail on Friday 22 May, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT). Mingəçevir are 9th with 4 points from 6 games (in the bottom three), while Səbail sit 5th on 12 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Mingəçevir's last 5: LWLWW Most recently they lost to Şahdağ 0–2 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 3.0 per game.
Səbail's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Zaqatala 3–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 3.2 per game. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Səbail arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 2.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 12 March 2026, finished Mingəçevir 0–1 Səbail.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.2 for Mingəçevir and 1.3 for Səbail. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 50%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Səbail to win at 2.90 – 40% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 55% chance at odds of 1.67. Predicted score: Mingəçevir 1–1 Səbail. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mingəçevir36%fair 2.76 · @2.20
Draw24%fair 4.19 · @3.20
Səbail40%fair 2.50 · @2.90
2.55Expected goals
1.24Mingəçevir xG
1.31Səbail xG
50%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: Mingəçevir 1.2 – 1.3 Səbail expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Mingəçevir vs Səbail?
On our numbers Mingəçevir have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Səbail 40%.
How many goals will there be in Mingəçevir vs Səbail?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mingəçevir vs Səbail?
Our predicted score is Mingəçevir 1–1 Səbail, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Mingəçevir vs Səbail?
Mingəçevir vs Səbail (Birinci Dasta) kicks off on Friday 22 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
