Good pick · fair odds 1.70 · bookmaker 1.91 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.91Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultMingəçevir to win ✓61% · @1.50
Double chanceMingəçevir or draw ✓84% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.05
Şimal vs Mingəçevir preview and prediction
The match
The Birinci Dasta sees Şimal take on Mingəçevir on Thursday 9 April, kicking off at 12:30 (WAT). Şimal are 6th with 8 points from 7 games (in the bottom half), while Mingəçevir sit 9th on 4 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Şimal's last 5: LDLWW Most recently they lost to Şahdağ 0–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Mingəçevir's last 5: WDLWW Most recently they beat Safa Baku 5–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Mingəçevir arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.0 for Şimal and 2.1 for Mingəçevir. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score in 59% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Şimal 16%, draw 23%, Mingəçevir 61%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.91.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 59% chance at odds of 1.91, above our fair price of 1.70, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Şimal 1–2 Mingəçevir. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Şimal16%fair 6.21 · @5.50
Draw23%fair 4.40 · @3.75
Mingəçevir61%fair 1.64 · @1.50
3.05Expected goals
0.99Şimal xG
2.06Mingəçevir xG
59%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–210%
1–210%
0–110%
1–110%
0–37%
1–37%
From our goals model: Şimal 1.0 – 2.1 Mingəçevir expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mingəçevir to win✓
61%
1.64
1.50
Double chance
Mingəçevir or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.10
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.70
1.91 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
–
Half-time result
Mingəçevir ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mingəçevir / FT Mingəçevir✗
40%
2.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.05
–
Form
Şimal – last 6
LDLWWL
3 Apr
@ Şahdağ
0–1
L
19 Mar
vs Zaqatala
0–0
D
11 Mar
vs Safa Baku
0–2
L
5 Mar
@ Zaqatala
4–3
W
24 Feb
vs Cəbrayıl
3–2
W
19 Feb
vs Şahdağ
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Mingəçevir – last 6
WDLWWD
3 Apr
vs Safa Baku
5–2
W
18 Mar
@ Baku Sportinq
1–1
D
12 Mar
vs Səbail
0–1
L
5 Mar
@ Baku Sportinq
1–0
W
25 Feb
vs MOIK
2–0
W
19 Feb
@ Safa Baku
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Şimal and Mingəçevir.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Şimal vs Mingəçevir?
On our numbers Şimal have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Mingəçevir 61%.
How many goals will there be in Şimal vs Mingəçevir?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Şimal vs Mingəçevir?
Our predicted score is Şimal 1–2 Mingəçevir, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Şimal vs Mingəçevir?
Şimal vs Mingəçevir (Birinci Dasta) kicks off on Thursday 9 April 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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