Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Şahdağ to win @ 1.80 – our chance 62% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultŞahdağ to win ✗62% · @1.80
Double chanceŞahdağ or draw ✓83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗12% · fair 8.44
Şahdağ vs MOIK preview and prediction
The match
The Birinci Dasta sees Şahdağ take on MOIK on Thursday 12 March, kicking off at 12:00 (WAT). Şahdağ are 2nd with 15 points from 6 games (in the top four), while MOIK sit 3rd on 14 points (in the top four). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Şahdağ's last 3: LWW Most recently they lost to Safa Baku 1–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
MOIK's last 3: WLW Most recently they beat Difai Ağsu 2–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.2 for Şahdağ and 0.8 for MOIK. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score in 58% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Şahdağ 62%, draw 21%, MOIK 17%.
Safer route: Şahdağ or draw (83%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Şahdağ to win at 1.80 – 62% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Şahdağ or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Şahdağ 2–0 MOIK. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Şahdağ62%fair 1.61 · @1.80
Draw21%fair 4.86 · @3.50
MOIK17%fair 5.75 · @3.60
3.04Expected goals
2.22Şahdağ xG
0.81MOIK xG
58%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–012%
1–011%
2–110%
3–09%
1–19%
3–17%
From our goals model: Şahdağ 2.2 – 0.8 MOIK expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Şahdağ to win✗
62%
1.61
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Şahdağ or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.71
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
–
Half-time result
Şahdağ ahead at half-time✓
50%
1.99
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Şahdağ / FT Şahdağ✗
46%
2.18
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
12%
8.44
–
Form
Şahdağ – last 3
LWW
5 Mar
@ Safa Baku
1–2
L
25 Feb
vs Zaqatala
1–0
W
19 Feb
@ Şimal
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
MOIK – last 3
WLW
6 Mar
vs Difai Ağsu
2–1
W
25 Feb
@ Mingəçevir
0–2
L
18 Feb
vs Səbail
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Şahdağ and MOIK.
Our pick is Şahdağ or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Şahdağ vs MOIK?
On our numbers Şahdağ have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 21% and MOIK 17%.
How many goals will there be in Şahdağ vs MOIK?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Şahdağ vs MOIK?
Our predicted score is Şahdağ 2–0 MOIK, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Şahdağ vs MOIK?
Şahdağ vs MOIK (Birinci Dasta) kicks off on Thursday 12 March 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Difai Ağsu1