Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.67 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.67Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultBadajoz to win ✗64% · @1.67
Double chanceBadajoz or draw ✗84% · @1.12
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · fair 1.87
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.13
Badajoz vs Moralo preview and prediction
The match
The Tercera División RFEF Group 14 sees Badajoz take on Moralo on Sunday 22 February, kicking off at 12:00 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for Badajoz and 0.8 for Moralo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 47%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Badajoz 64%, draw 20%, Moralo 16%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Badajoz to win – a 64% chance at odds of 1.67, above our fair price of 1.57, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Badajoz 1–0 Moralo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Badajoz64%fair 1.57 · @1.67
Draw20%fair 5.03 · @3.40
Moralo16%fair 6.10 · @4.40
2.55Expected goals
1.80Badajoz xG
0.75Moralo xG
47%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–08%
From our goals model: Badajoz 1.8 – 0.8 Moralo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Badajoz to win✗
64%
1.57
1.67 ▲
Double chance
Badajoz or draw✗
84%
1.20
1.12
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.87
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
–
Half-time result
Badajoz ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Badajoz / FT Badajoz✗
39%
2.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.13
–
Form
Badajoz – last 1
W
15 Feb
@ Diocesano
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Moralo – last 1
W
15 Feb
vs Atlético Pueblonuevo
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Badajoz and Moralo.
Our pick is Badajoz to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Badajoz vs Moralo?
On our numbers Badajoz have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Moralo 16%.
How many goals will there be in Badajoz vs Moralo?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Badajoz vs Moralo?
Our predicted score is Badajoz 1–0 Moralo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Badajoz vs Moralo?
Badajoz vs Moralo (Tercera División RFEF Group 14) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Don Benito5