Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Tona to win @ 1.80 – our chance 64% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultTona to win ✗64% · @1.80
Double chanceTona or draw ✓86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗58% · fair 1.72
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.89
Tona vs Europa II preview and prediction
The match
Europa II travel to Camp de futbol de Tona 2 in the Tercera División RFEF Group 5 on Sunday 15 February (11:45 WAT) to face Tona. Tona are 8th with 14 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Europa II sit 2nd on 17 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Tona and 0.7 for Europa II. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 42%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Tona 64%, draw 22%, Europa II 14%.
Safer route: Tona or draw (86%) at 1.20.
Value angle: Tona to win at 1.80 – 64% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Tona or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Tona 1–0 Europa II. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tona64%fair 1.56 · @1.80
Draw22%fair 4.63 · @3.45
Europa II14%fair 7.01 · @3.65
2.53Expected goals
1.82Tona xG
0.71Europa II xG
42%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Tona 1.8 – 0.7 Europa II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tona to win✗
64%
1.56
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Tona or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
Half-time result
Tona ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tona / FT Tona✗
40%
2.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.89
–
Form
Tona
No recent results on record.
Europa II
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tona and Europa II.
Our pick is Tona or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Tona vs Europa II?
On our numbers Tona have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Europa II 14%.
How many goals will there be in Tona vs Europa II?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tona vs Europa II?
Our predicted score is Tona 1–0 Europa II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Tona vs Europa II?
Tona vs Europa II (Tercera División RFEF Group 5) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 11:45 (West Africa Time) at Camp de futbol de Tona 2.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
