Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Guarnizo to win @ 1.83 – our chance 59% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultGuarnizo to win ✓59% · @1.83
Double chanceGuarnizo or draw ✓83% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · fair 1.92
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.90
Revilla vs Guarnizo preview and prediction
The match
Revilla host Guarnizo in the Tercera División RFEF Group 3 on Sunday 15 February, with kick-off at 18:30 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal. Revilla are 3rd with 21 points from 10 games (in the top four), while Guarnizo sit 13th on 8 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 0.9 for Revilla and 1.8 for Guarnizo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 48%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Revilla 17%, draw 24%, Guarnizo 59%.
Safer route: Guarnizo or draw (83%) at 1.25.
Value angle: Guarnizo to win at 1.83 – 59% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Guarnizo or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.20, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Revilla 0–1 Guarnizo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Revilla17%fair 5.97 · @3.65
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.35
Guarnizo59%fair 1.70 · @1.83
2.65Expected goals
0.86Revilla xG
1.80Guarnizo xG
48%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
0–211%
1–111%
1–210%
0–07%
0–37%
From our goals model: Revilla 0.9 – 1.8 Guarnizo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Guarnizo to win✓
59%
1.70
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Guarnizo or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.92
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
1.99
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
–
Half-time result
Guarnizo ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Guarnizo / FT Guarnizo✓
37%
2.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.90
–
Form
Revilla
No recent results on record.
Guarnizo
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Revilla and Guarnizo.
Our pick is Guarnizo or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Revilla vs Guarnizo?
On our numbers Revilla have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Guarnizo 59%.
How many goals will there be in Revilla vs Guarnizo?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Revilla vs Guarnizo?
Our predicted score is Revilla 0–1 Guarnizo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Revilla vs Guarnizo?
Revilla vs Guarnizo (Tercera División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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Colindres1