Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Alondras to win @ 1.95 – our chance 58% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlondras to win ✓58% · @1.95
Double chanceAlondras or draw ✓81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗57% · fair 1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.87
Alondras vs Coruña preview and prediction
The match
The Tercera División RFEF Group 1 sees Alondras take on Coruña on Sunday 22 February, kicking off at 16:30 (WAT) at Campo do Morrazo. Alondras are 12th with 12 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Coruña sit 16th on 9 points (in the bottom three). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.6 for Alondras and 0.8 for Coruña. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 43%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Alondras 58%, draw 23%, Coruña 19%.
Safer route: Alondras or draw (81%) at 1.25.
Value angle: Alondras to win at 1.95 – 58% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Alondras or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Alondras 1–0 Coruña. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alondras58%fair 1.73 · @1.95
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.20
Coruña19%fair 5.19 · @3.40
2.40Expected goals
1.61Alondras xG
0.79Coruña xG
43%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–012%
1–112%
2–19%
0–09%
0–17%
From our goals model: Alondras 1.6 – 0.8 Coruña expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alondras to win✓
58%
1.73
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Alondras or draw✓
81%
1.24
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
57%
1.77
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.74
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.29
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alondras / FT Alondras✗
35%
2.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.87
–
Form
Alondras
No recent results on record.
Coruña
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alondras and Coruña.
Our pick is Alondras or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Alondras vs Coruña?
On our numbers Alondras have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Coruña 19%.
How many goals will there be in Alondras vs Coruña?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alondras vs Coruña?
Our predicted score is Alondras 1–0 Coruña, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Alondras vs Coruña?
Alondras vs Coruña (Tercera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Campo do Morrazo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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