Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
2
Value bet: Somozas to win @ 2.70 – our chance 40% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSomozas to win ✗40% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗56% · fair 1.78
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.54
Polvorín vs Somozas preview and prediction
The match
The Tercera División RFEF Group 1 sees Polvorín take on Somozas on Sunday 22 February, kicking off at 15:45 (WAT).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.0 for Polvorín and 1.1 for Somozas. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Polvorín 36%, draw 25%, Somozas 40%.
Value angle: Somozas to win at 2.70 – 40% on our numbers against 37% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Polvorín 1–1 Somozas. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Polvorín36%fair 2.79 · @2.45
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.00
Somozas40%fair 2.53 · @2.70
2.11Expected goals
1.02Polvorín xG
1.09Somozas xG
44%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–113%
1–012%
0–012%
1–27%
0–27%
From our goals model: Polvorín 1.0 – 1.1 Somozas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Somozas to win✗
40%
2.53
2.70 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.33
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
56%
1.78
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
84%
1.19
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
49%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Somozas / FT Somozas✗
21%
4.84
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.54
–
Form
Polvorín
No recent results on record.
Somozas
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Polvorín and Somozas.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Polvorín vs Somozas?
On our numbers Polvorín have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Somozas 40%.
How many goals will there be in Polvorín vs Somozas?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Polvorín vs Somozas?
Our predicted score is Polvorín 1–1 Somozas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Polvorín vs Somozas?
Polvorín vs Somozas (Tercera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 15:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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