Serie D Girone I · Italy · Stadio San Filippo
Messina vs Milazzo prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: Messina to win @ 1.73 – our chance 63% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Messina 1.5 – 0.6 Milazzo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Messina are clear favourites at home with a 63% chance of winning, against 17% for Milazzo.
Messina have taken 3 points from their last 6 matches (0W 3D 3L), scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.2 per game. Milazzo have 5 points from their last 6 (1W 2D 3L), averaging 0.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 2.2 goals (1.5 for Messina, 0.6 for Milazzo). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 60% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (18%), 2–0 (14%), 0–0 (12%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 79% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.26. For a bigger price, Messina to win at 1.73 is our value angle (63% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Messina to win ✓ | 63% | 1.59 | 1.73 ▲ |
| Double chance | Messina or draw ✓ | 83% | 1.21 | 1.12 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 51% | 1.98 | 1.95 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 65% | 1.53 | 1.38 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 60% | 1.67 | 1.65 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 79% | 1.26 | 1.22 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 46% | 2.17 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Messina / FT Messina ✗ | 37% | 2.74 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✓ | 18% | 5.62 | – |
Form
Messina – last 6
| 26 Apr | @ Igea Virtus | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Apr | @ Vigor Lamezia | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Apr | @ Savoia | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Mar | vs Gelbison | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | @ Vibonese | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Mar | vs Nissa | 0–1 | L |
Milazzo – last 6
| 26 Apr | vs Reggina | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Apr | vs Sambiase | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Apr | vs Vigor Lamezia | 0–0 | D |
| 8 Apr | @ Enna | 1–3 | L |
| 22 Mar | vs Savoia | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | @ Gela | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Messina and Milazzo.
Serie D Girone I table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Reggina | 11 | +21 | 26 |
| 2 |  Sambiase | 11 | +11 | 26 |
| 3 |  Vibonese | 11 | +14 | 24 |
| 4 |  Calcio Avola | 11 | +1 | 19 |
| 5 |  Milazzo | 11 | +1 | 19 |
| 6 |  Digiesse PraiaTortora | 11 | +6 | 18 |
| 7 |  Igea Virtus | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 8 |  Gela | 11 | +4 | 15 |
| 9 |  Siracusa | 11 | +8 | 14 |
| 10 |  AC Palermo | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 |  Licata | 11 | -11 | 14 |
| 12 |  Modica | 11 | +1 | 13 |
| 13 |  Nissa | 11 | +1 | 12 |
| 14 |  Trapani 1905 | 11 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 |  CastrumFavara | 11 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 |  Vigor Lamezia | 11 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Ragusa | 11 | -14 | 3 |
| 18 |  Enna | 11 | -23 | 3 |
More Serie D Girone I predictions
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Acireale0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Messina vs Milazzo?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Messina vs Milazzo?
On our numbers Messina have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Milazzo 17%.
How many goals will there be in Messina vs Milazzo?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
When is Messina vs Milazzo?
Messina vs Milazzo (Serie D Girone I) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio San Filippo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.