Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
2
Value bet: Nissa to win @ 2.55 – our chance 44% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNissa to win ✓44% · @2.55
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · fair 1.81
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓14% · fair 7.11
Messina vs Nissa preview and prediction
The match
Messina host Nissa in the Serie D Girone I on Sunday 15 March, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Stadio San Filippo.
Form guide
Messina's last 3: DLD Most recently they drew with CastrumFavara 1–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 0.9 for Messina and 1.2 for Nissa. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Messina 33%, draw 22%, Nissa 44%.
Value angle: Nissa to win at 2.55 – 44% on our numbers against 39% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Messina 0–1 Nissa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Messina33%fair 3.01 · @2.55
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @3.00
Nissa44%fair 2.26 · @2.55
2.12Expected goals
0.95Messina xG
1.17Nissa xG
45%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–113%
0–012%
1–011%
0–28%
1–28%
From our goals model: Messina 0.9 – 1.2 Nissa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nissa to win✓
44%
2.26
2.55 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nissa / FT Nissa✓
23%
4.31
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
14%
7.11
–
Form
Messina – last 3
DLD
1 Mar
@ CastrumFavara
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Sambiase
0–1
L
15 Feb
@ Reggina
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Nissa – last 2
DW
22 Feb
@ Savoia
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Vigor Lamezia
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Messina and Nissa.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Messina vs Nissa?
On our numbers Messina have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Nissa 44%.
How many goals will there be in Messina vs Nissa?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Messina vs Nissa?
Our predicted score is Messina 0–1 Nissa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Messina vs Nissa?
Messina vs Nissa (Serie D Girone I) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio San Filippo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Paternò2
Sancataldese0
Savoia1
Gelbison1