Virtus Francavilla vs Francavilla prediction & analysis
84%
Footrivo pick
Virtus Francavilla or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Virtus Francavilla to win @ 1.85 – our chance 62% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultVirtus Francavilla to win ✗62% · @1.85
Double chanceVirtus Francavilla or draw ✗84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓57% · fair 1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 6.00
Virtus Francavilla vs Francavilla preview and prediction
The match
The Serie D Girone H sees Virtus Francavilla take on Francavilla on Sunday 19 April, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT) at Stadio Giovanni Paolo II. Virtus Francavilla are 1st with 27 points from 11 games (top of the table), while Francavilla sit 17th on 8 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 19 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Virtus Francavilla's last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with Afragolese 2–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Francavilla's last 5: DDLLW Most recently they drew with Fidelis Andria 0–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Virtus Francavilla arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.6 for Virtus Francavilla and 0.7 for Francavilla. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 43%.
Safer route: Virtus Francavilla or draw (84%) at 1.22.
Value angle: Virtus Francavilla to win at 1.85 – 62% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Virtus Francavilla or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Virtus Francavilla 1–0 Francavilla. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Virtus Francavilla62%fair 1.60 · @1.85
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.20
Francavilla16%fair 6.26 · @3.70
2.28Expected goals
1.63Virtus Francavilla xG
0.65Francavilla xG
43%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–014%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–07%
From our goals model: Virtus Francavilla 1.6 – 0.7 Francavilla expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Virtus Francavilla to win✗
62%
1.60
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Virtus Francavilla or draw✗
84%
1.19
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.66
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Virtus Francavilla / FT Virtus Francavilla✗
38%
2.66
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
6.00
–
Form
Virtus Francavilla – last 6
DWWWWL
2 Apr
@ Afragolese
2–2
D
29 Mar
vs Nardò
1–0
W
22 Mar
@ Real Acerrana
1–0
W
15 Mar
vs Nola 1925
2–1
W
1 Mar
@ Heraclea
3–1
W
22 Feb
vs Gravina
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Francavilla – last 6
DDLLWD
2 Apr
@ Fidelis Andria
0–0
D
29 Mar
vs Heraclea
2–2
D
22 Mar
@ Nardò
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Città di Fasano
0–2
L
1 Mar
@ Nola 1925
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Real Normanna
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Virtus Francavilla and Francavilla.
What is the prediction for Virtus Francavilla vs Francavilla?
Our pick is Virtus Francavilla or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Virtus Francavilla vs Francavilla?
On our numbers Virtus Francavilla have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Francavilla 16%.
How many goals will there be in Virtus Francavilla vs Francavilla?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Virtus Francavilla vs Francavilla?
Our predicted score is Virtus Francavilla 1–0 Francavilla, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Virtus Francavilla vs Francavilla?
Virtus Francavilla vs Francavilla (Serie D Girone H) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Giovanni Paolo II.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Sarnese1
Nola 19250
Ferrandina0
Città di Fasano1