Good pick · fair odds 1.63 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.50Odds
2
Value bet: Sarnese to win @ 3.20 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFidelis Andria to win ✓42% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · fair 1.88
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.99
Fidelis Andria vs Sarnese preview and prediction
The match
Sarnese travel to Stadio Degli Ulivi in the Serie D Girone H on Sunday 19 April (14:00 WAT) to face Fidelis Andria.
Form guide
Fidelis Andria's last 5: DWLWL Most recently they drew with Francavilla 0–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sarnese's last 5: WDWDD Most recently they beat Real Acerrana 5–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.2 for Fidelis Andria and 1.1 for Sarnese. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 47%.
Value angle: Sarnese to win at 3.20 – 34% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 61% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Fidelis Andria 1–1 Sarnese. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fidelis Andria42%fair 2.41 · @2.15
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.00
Sarnese34%fair 2.95 · @3.20
2.27Expected goals
1.21Fidelis Andria xG
1.06Sarnese xG
47%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Fidelis Andria 1.2 – 1.1 Sarnese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fidelis Andria to win✓
42%
2.41
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.63
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fidelis Andria / FT Fidelis Andria✓
23%
4.42
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.99
–
Form
Fidelis Andria – last 6
DWLWLW
2 Apr
vs Francavilla
0–0
D
29 Mar
vs Real Acerrana
1–0
W
22 Mar
@ Afragolese
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Heraclea
1–0
W
1 Mar
@ Nardò
2–3
L
22 Feb
vs Città di Fasano
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Sarnese – last 5
WDWDD
2 Apr
@ Real Acerrana
5–2
W
22 Mar
@ Heraclea
1–1
D
15 Mar
vs Gravina
2–0
W
22 Feb
vs Paganese
1–1
D
15 Feb
@ Real Normanna
2–2
D
2.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
80%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fidelis Andria and Sarnese.
What is the prediction for Fidelis Andria vs Sarnese?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Fidelis Andria vs Sarnese?
On our numbers Fidelis Andria have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sarnese 34%.
How many goals will there be in Fidelis Andria vs Sarnese?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fidelis Andria vs Sarnese?
Our predicted score is Fidelis Andria 1–1 Sarnese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Fidelis Andria vs Sarnese?
Fidelis Andria vs Sarnese (Serie D Girone H) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Degli Ulivi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Nola 19250
Ferrandina0
Città di Fasano1