Value bet: Virtus Francavilla to win @ 3.10 – our chance 37% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAfragolese to win ✗39% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · fair 1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.17
Afragolese vs Virtus Francavilla preview and prediction
The match
The Serie D Girone H sees Afragolese take on Virtus Francavilla on Thursday 2 April, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT) at Stadio Luigi Moccia.
Form guide
Afragolese's last 5: LWDWL Most recently they lost to Martina Franca 0–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Virtus Francavilla's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Nardò 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Virtus Francavilla arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Afragolese and 1.2 for Virtus Francavilla. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 47%.
Value angle: Virtus Francavilla to win at 3.10 – 37% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 57% chance at odds of 1.65. Predicted score: Afragolese 1–1 Virtus Francavilla. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Afragolese39%fair 2.53 · @2.10
Draw24%fair 4.19 · @3.20
Virtus Francavilla37%fair 2.73 · @3.10
2.44Expected goals
1.25Afragolese xG
1.19Virtus Francavilla xG
47%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Afragolese 1.2 – 1.2 Virtus Francavilla expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Afragolese to win✗
39%
2.53
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Afragolese / FT Afragolese✗
22%
4.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.17
–
Form
Afragolese – last 6
LWDWLD
29 Mar
@ Martina Franca
0–2
L
22 Mar
vs Fidelis Andria
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Ferrandina
1–1
D
1 Mar
vs Real Acerrana
5–2
W
22 Feb
@ Barletta
0–2
L
15 Feb
vs Nardò
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Virtus Francavilla – last 6
WWWWLW
29 Mar
vs Nardò
1–0
W
22 Mar
@ Real Acerrana
1–0
W
15 Mar
vs Nola 1925
2–1
W
1 Mar
@ Heraclea
3–1
W
22 Feb
vs Gravina
0–1
L
15 Feb
@ Città di Fasano
3–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Afragolese and Virtus Francavilla.
What is the prediction for Afragolese vs Virtus Francavilla?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Afragolese vs Virtus Francavilla?
On our numbers Afragolese have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Virtus Francavilla 37%.
How many goals will there be in Afragolese vs Virtus Francavilla?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Afragolese vs Virtus Francavilla?
Our predicted score is Afragolese 1–1 Virtus Francavilla, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Afragolese vs Virtus Francavilla?
Afragolese vs Virtus Francavilla (Serie D Girone H) kicks off on Thursday 2 April 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Luigi Moccia.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Città di Fasano2
Ferrandina0