Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.85 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.85Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultPaganese to win ✗64% · @1.85
Double chancePaganese or draw ✓87% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗60% · fair 1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗17% · fair 5.94
Sarnese vs Paganese preview and prediction
The match
The Serie D Girone H sees Sarnese take on Paganese on Sunday 22 February, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at Stadio Felice Squitieri.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 0.6 for Sarnese and 1.7 for Paganese. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 40%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sarnese 13%, draw 23%, Paganese 64%.
Safer route: Paganese or draw (87%) at 1.18.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Paganese to win – a 64% chance at odds of 1.85, above our fair price of 1.57, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Sarnese 0–1 Paganese. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sarnese13%fair 7.52 · @3.80
Draw23%fair 4.34 · @3.20
Paganese64%fair 1.57 · @1.85
2.31Expected goals
0.62Sarnese xG
1.69Paganese xG
40%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–117%
0–214%
1–110%
0–010%
1–29%
0–38%
From our goals model: Sarnese 0.6 – 1.7 Paganese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Paganese to win✗
64%
1.57
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Paganese or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.18
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Paganese / FT Paganese✗
40%
2.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
17%
5.94
–
Form
Sarnese – last 1
D
15 Feb
@ Real Normanna
2–2
D
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Paganese – last 1
W
15 Feb
vs Pompei
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sarnese and Paganese.
Our pick is Paganese to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Sarnese vs Paganese?
On our numbers Sarnese have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Paganese 64%.
How many goals will there be in Sarnese vs Paganese?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sarnese vs Paganese?
Our predicted score is Sarnese 0–1 Paganese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Sarnese vs Paganese?
Sarnese vs Paganese (Serie D Girone H) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Felice Squitieri.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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