Value bet: Septemvri Sofia to win @ 1.91 – our chance 57% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSeptemvri Sofia to win ✗57% · @1.91
Double chanceEither team to win ✗80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.25
Septemvri Sofia vs Spartak Varna preview and prediction
The match
Septemvri Sofia host Spartak Varna in the First League on Thursday 16 April, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Stadion Dragalevtsi. Septemvri Sofia are 12th with 11 points from 14 games (in the bottom three), while Spartak Varna sit 7th on 16 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Septemvri Sofia's last 5: WDLLL Most recently they beat Slavia Sofia 2–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Spartak Varna's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Dobrudzha 1–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.7 for Septemvri Sofia and 1.0 for Spartak Varna. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Septemvri Sofia 57%, draw 20%, Spartak Varna 23%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Septemvri Sofia to win at 1.91 – 57% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Septemvri Sofia 1–1 Spartak Varna. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Septemvri Sofia57%fair 1.75 · @1.91
Draw20%fair 4.95 · @3.35
Spartak Varna23%fair 4.40 · @3.55
2.70Expected goals
1.73Septemvri Sofia xG
0.97Spartak Varna xG
56%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: Septemvri Sofia 1.7 – 1.0 Spartak Varna expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Septemvri Sofia to win✗
57%
1.75
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
80%
1.25
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.77
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.36
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
50%
1.99
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Septemvri Sofia / FT Septemvri Sofia✗
34%
2.93
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.25
–
Form
Septemvri Sofia – last 6
WDLLLL
10 Apr
@ Slavia Sofia
2–1
W
6 Apr
vs Botev Vratsa
0–0
D
21 Mar
vs Arda Kardzhali
1–4
L
17 Mar
@ Lokomotiv Sofia
0–3
L
13 Mar
@ Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0–1
L
3 Mar
@ Botev Plovdiv
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Spartak Varna – last 6
WLLLWL
10 Apr
vs Dobrudzha
1–0
W
19 Mar
vs Ludogorets
1–5
L
14 Mar
vs CSKA 1948
1–2
L
6 Mar
@ Slavia Sofia
0–4
L
3 Mar
vs Montana
1–0
W
27 Feb
@ Arda Kardzhali
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Septemvri Sofia and Spartak Varna.
What is the prediction for Septemvri Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Septemvri Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
On our numbers Septemvri Sofia have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Spartak Varna 23%.
How many goals will there be in Septemvri Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Septemvri Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
Our predicted score is Septemvri Sofia 1–1 Spartak Varna, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Septemvri Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
Septemvri Sofia vs Spartak Varna (First League) kicks off on Thursday 16 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Dragalevtsi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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