Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 52% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLudogorets to win ✗64% · @1.30
Double chanceLudogorets or draw ✓86% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.15
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.66
Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna preview and prediction
The match
Cherno More Varna travel to Huvepharma Arena in the First League on Thursday 9 April (16:00 WAT) to face Ludogorets. Ludogorets are 3rd with 30 points from 13 games (in the top four), while Cherno More Varna sit 9th on 13 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Ludogorets's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat CSKA 1948 3–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Cherno More Varna's last 5: LWDDD Most recently they lost to Slavia Sofia 1–3 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.6 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Ludogorets arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Ludogorets and 0.7 for Cherno More Varna. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ludogorets 64%, draw 22%, Cherno More Varna 14%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.15.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.15 – 52% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: Ludogorets 1–0 Cherno More Varna. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ludogorets64%fair 1.55 · @1.30
Draw22%fair 4.63 · @4.33
Cherno More Varna14%fair 7.11 · @9.75
2.54Expected goals
1.83Ludogorets xG
0.71Cherno More Varna xG
52%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Ludogorets 1.8 – 0.7 Cherno More Varna expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ludogorets to win✗
64%
1.55
1.30
Double chance
Ludogorets or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.01
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
2.15 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
1.93
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.35
Half-time result
Ludogorets ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ludogorets / FT Ludogorets✗
41%
2.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.66
–
Form
Ludogorets – last 6
WWWWDL
5 Apr
vs CSKA 1948
3–0
W
19 Mar
@ Spartak Varna
5–1
W
9 Mar
@ Montana
3–0
W
5 Mar
vs Levski Sofia
1–0
W
2 Mar
vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1–1
D
26 Feb
@ Ferencvarosi TC
0–2
L
2.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Cherno More Varna – last 5
LWDDD
5 Apr
vs Slavia Sofia
1–3
L
15 Mar
vs Montana
1–0
W
4 Mar
vs Arda Kardzhali
0–0
D
20 Feb
vs Botev Vratsa
0–0
D
15 Feb
@ Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1–1
D
0.6Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ludogorets and Cherno More Varna.
What is the prediction for Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna?
On our numbers Ludogorets have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Cherno More Varna 14%.
How many goals will there be in Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna?
Our predicted score is Ludogorets 1–0 Cherno More Varna, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna?
Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna (First League) kicks off on Thursday 9 April 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Huvepharma Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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