Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.93 – our chance 55% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLokomotiv Plovdiv to win ✓61% · @1.65
Double chanceLokomotiv Plovdiv or draw ✓86% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.60
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia preview and prediction
The match
Septemvri Sofia travel to Stadion Lokomotiv in the First League on Friday 13 March (15:45 WAT) to face Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Lokomotiv Plovdiv are 11th with 12 points from 14 games (in the bottom half), while Septemvri Sofia sit 12th on 11 points (in the bottom three). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Lokomotiv Plovdiv's last 5: LLDDD Most recently they lost to Levski Sofia 0–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.6 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 0.7 for Septemvri Sofia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 55%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 61%, draw 25%, Septemvri Sofia 14%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.93.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.93 – 55% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Septemvri Sofia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lokomotiv Plovdiv61%fair 1.63 · @1.65
Draw25%fair 3.99 · @3.40
Septemvri Sofia14%fair 7.28 · @5.00
2.52Expected goals
1.79Lokomotiv Plovdiv xG
0.74Septemvri Sofia xG
55%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–08%
From our goals model: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.8 – 0.7 Septemvri Sofia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win✓
61%
1.63
1.65
Double chance
Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.81
1.93 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Half-time result
Lokomotiv Plovdiv ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lokomotiv Plovdiv / FT Lokomotiv Plovdiv✓
39%
2.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.60
–
Form
Lokomotiv Plovdiv – last 5
LLDDD
9 Mar
@ Levski Sofia
0–1
L
5 Mar
vs CSKA 1948
0–5
L
2 Mar
@ Ludogorets
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Spartak Varna
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Cherno More Varna
1–1
D
0.6Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
60%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Septemvri Sofia – last 2
LW
3 Mar
@ Botev Plovdiv
0–2
L
16 Feb
vs Montana
1–0
W
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Septemvri Sofia.
What is the prediction for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?
On our numbers Lokomotiv Plovdiv have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Septemvri Sofia 14%.
How many goals will there be in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?
Our predicted score is Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Septemvri Sofia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia (First League) kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 15:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Lokomotiv.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
