Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Zira to win @ 1.95 – our chance 64% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +25%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultZira to win ✗64% · @1.95
Double chanceZira or draw ✗84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.32
Araz vs Zira preview and prediction
The match
Zira travel to SOCAR Polymer Arena in the Premyer Liqa on Saturday 23 May (16:00 WAT) to face Araz. Araz are 12th with 4 points from 11 games (in the bottom three), while Zira sit 5th on 19 points (in the top half). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Araz's last 5: LLWWL Most recently they lost to Turan 0–3 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Zira's last 5: WLDDD Most recently they beat Sumqayıt 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 27 February 2026, finished Araz 0–1 Zira.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.8 for Araz and 1.8 for Zira. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Araz 16%, draw 20%, Zira 64%.
Safer route: Zira or draw (84%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Zira to win at 1.95 – 64% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Zira or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Araz 0–1 Zira. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Araz16%fair 6.24 · @3.50
Draw20%fair 5.03 · @3.25
Zira64%fair 1.56 · @1.95
2.60Expected goals
0.76Araz xG
1.84Zira xG
52%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–213%
1–110%
1–210%
0–38%
0–07%
From our goals model: Araz 0.8 – 1.8 Zira expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Zira or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Araz vs Zira?
On our numbers Araz have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Zira 64%.
How many goals will there be in Araz vs Zira?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Araz vs Zira?
Our predicted score is Araz 0–1 Zira, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Araz vs Zira?
Araz vs Zira (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Saturday 23 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at SOCAR Polymer Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
