Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Neftchi Baku to win @ 1.85 – our chance 60% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNeftchi Baku to win ✓60% · @1.85
Double chanceNeftchi Baku or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.09
Sumqayıt vs Neftchi Baku preview and prediction
The match
Sumqayıt host Neftchi Baku in the Premyer Liqa on Sunday 5 April, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium. Sumqayıt are 9th with 10 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Neftchi Baku sit 1st on 24 points (top of the table). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Sumqayıt's last 5: LLDLL Most recently they lost to Sabah FA 1–3 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Neftchi Baku's last 5: WWLDW Most recently they beat Imisli FK 6–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.8 per game.
Neftchi Baku arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 0.8 for Sumqayıt and 1.8 for Neftchi Baku. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sumqayıt 15%, draw 26%, Neftchi Baku 60%.
Safer route: Neftchi Baku or draw (85%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.90.
Value angle: Neftchi Baku to win at 1.85 – 60% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Neftchi Baku or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Sumqayıt 0–1 Neftchi Baku. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sumqayıt15%fair 6.73 · @4.00
Draw26%fair 3.92 · @3.25
Neftchi Baku60%fair 1.68 · @1.85
2.52Expected goals
0.77Sumqayıt xG
1.75Neftchi Baku xG
53%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–212%
1–111%
1–29%
0–08%
0–37%
From our goals model: Sumqayıt 0.8 – 1.8 Neftchi Baku expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Neftchi Baku to win✓
60%
1.68
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Neftchi Baku or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.87
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.22
Half-time result
Neftchi Baku ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Neftchi Baku / FT Neftchi Baku✓
38%
2.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.09
–
Form
Sumqayıt – last 6
LLDLLD
19 Mar
@ Sabah FA
1–3
L
13 Mar
vs Keshla FC
0–1
L
7 Mar
@ Karvan
1–1
D
3 Mar
@ Zira
0–2
L
27 Feb
@ Kapaz
0–3
L
20 Feb
vs Qabala
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Neftchi Baku – last 5
WWLDW
20 Mar
vs Imisli FK
6–0
W
15 Mar
@ Qabala
3–1
W
9 Mar
vs Turan
0–1
L
28 Feb
@ Keshla FC
2–2
D
15 Feb
@ Kapaz
3–1
W
2.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
60%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sumqayıt and Neftchi Baku.
What is the prediction for Sumqayıt vs Neftchi Baku?
Our pick is Neftchi Baku or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Sumqayıt vs Neftchi Baku?
On our numbers Sumqayıt have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Neftchi Baku 60%.
How many goals will there be in Sumqayıt vs Neftchi Baku?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sumqayıt vs Neftchi Baku?
Our predicted score is Sumqayıt 0–1 Neftchi Baku, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Sumqayıt vs Neftchi Baku?
Sumqayıt vs Neftchi Baku (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
