Value bet: Kapaz to win @ 2.70 – our chance 41% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultKapaz to win ✗41% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.34
Kapaz vs Qabala preview and prediction
The match
Kapaz host Qabala in the Premyer Liqa on Sunday 5 April, with kick-off at 12:30 (WAT). Kapaz are 6th with 17 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Qabala sit 10th on 8 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Kapaz's last 5: WDDLW Most recently they beat Qarabag 1–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Qabala's last 5: LLLDL Most recently they lost to Neftchi Baku 1–3 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.4 per game.
Kapaz arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Kapaz and 1.2 for Qabala. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Kapaz 41%, draw 25%, Qabala 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Kapaz to win at 2.70 – 41% on our numbers against 37% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Kapaz 1–1 Qabala. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Kapaz41%fair 2.44 · @2.70
Draw25%fair 3.93 · @2.95
Qabala34%fair 2.98 · @2.55
2.53Expected goals
1.34Kapaz xG
1.19Qabala xG
55%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Kapaz 1.3 – 1.2 Qabala expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Kapaz to win✗
41%
2.44
2.70 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.80
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Kapaz / FT Kapaz✗
23%
4.28
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.34
–
Form
Kapaz – last 6
WDDLWL
20 Mar
vs Qarabag
1–0
W
15 Mar
vs Turan
1–1
D
9 Mar
@ Zira
2–2
D
5 Mar
vs Turan
0–2
L
27 Feb
vs Sumqayıt
3–0
W
22 Feb
@ Sabah FA
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Qabala – last 5
LLLDL
15 Mar
vs Neftchi Baku
1–3
L
10 Mar
@ Sabah FA
1–7
L
24 Feb
vs Turan
0–3
L
20 Feb
@ Sumqayıt
0–0
D
16 Feb
vs Sabah FA
0–1
L
0.4Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Kapaz and Qabala.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Kapaz vs Qabala?
On our numbers Kapaz have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Qabala 34%.
How many goals will there be in Kapaz vs Qabala?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Kapaz vs Qabala?
Our predicted score is Kapaz 1–1 Qabala, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Kapaz vs Qabala?
Kapaz vs Qabala (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
