Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Zira to win @ 1.85 – our chance 64% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultZira to win ✗64% · @1.85
Double chanceZira or draw ✓85% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.94
Zira vs Şamaxı FK preview and prediction
The match
Şamaxı FK travel to Zira Stadium in the Premyer Liqa on Tuesday 7 April (14:15 WAT) to face Zira. Zira are 5th with 19 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Şamaxı FK sit 7th on 14 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Zira's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Turan 2–0 away. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Şamaxı FK's last 5: LWDLD Most recently they lost to Araz 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Zira arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.7 for Zira and 0.6 for Şamaxı FK. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 52%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Zira 64%, draw 21%, Şamaxı FK 15%.
Safer route: Zira or draw (85%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Zira to win at 1.85 – 64% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Zira 1–0 Şamaxı FK. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Zira64%fair 1.56 · @1.85
Draw21%fair 4.81 · @3.20
Şamaxı FK15%fair 6.62 · @4.20
2.29Expected goals
1.67Zira xG
0.63Şamaxı FK xG
52%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–014%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Zira 1.7 – 0.6 Şamaxı FK expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Zira to win✗
64%
1.56
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Zira or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Zira / FT Zira✗
39%
2.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.94
–
Form
Zira – last 6
WWDWWL
3 Apr
@ Turan
2–0
W
19 Mar
@ Karvan
1–0
W
9 Mar
vs Kapaz
2–2
D
3 Mar
vs Sumqayıt
2–0
W
27 Feb
@ Araz
1–0
W
20 Feb
@ Turan
0–2
L
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Şamaxı FK – last 6
LWDLDD
18 Mar
vs Araz
0–1
L
13 Mar
@ Sumqayıt
1–0
W
8 Mar
vs Mil-Muğan
0–0
D
4 Mar
@ Qarabag
1–3
L
28 Feb
vs Neftchi Baku
2–2
D
22 Feb
@ Mil-Muğan
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Zira and Şamaxı FK.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Zira vs Şamaxı FK?
On our numbers Zira have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Şamaxı FK 15%.
How many goals will there be in Zira vs Şamaxı FK?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Zira vs Şamaxı FK?
Our predicted score is Zira 1–0 Şamaxı FK, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Zira vs Şamaxı FK?
Zira vs Şamaxı FK (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Tuesday 7 April 2026 at 14:15 (West Africa Time) at Zira Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
