Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 50% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultZira to win ✗68% · @1.40
Double chanceZira or draw ✓89% · @1.04
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.67
Zira vs Kapaz preview and prediction
The match
Zira host Kapaz in the Premyer Liqa on Monday 9 March, with kick-off at 15:30 (WAT) at Zira Stadium. Zira are 5th with 19 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Kapaz sit 6th on 17 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Zira's last 3: WWL Most recently they beat Sumqayıt 2–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Kapaz's last 4: LWLL Most recently they lost to Turan 0–2 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Zira arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.9 for Zira and 0.6 for Kapaz. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 50%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Zira 68%, draw 21%, Kapaz 11%.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 2.15.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.15 – 50% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Zira 1–0 Kapaz. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Zira68%fair 1.48 · @1.40
Draw21%fair 4.73 · @3.90
Kapaz11%fair 9.03 · @7.00
2.55Expected goals
1.92Zira xG
0.63Kapaz xG
50%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–014%
1–19%
3–09%
2–19%
0–08%
From our goals model: Zira 1.9 – 0.6 Kapaz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Zira to win✗
68%
1.48
1.40
Double chance
Zira or draw✓
89%
1.12
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
2.00
2.15 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.87
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
74%
1.34
1.25
Half-time result
Zira ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Zira / FT Zira✗
44%
2.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.67
–
Form
Zira – last 3
WWL
3 Mar
vs Sumqayıt
2–0
W
27 Feb
@ Araz
1–0
W
20 Feb
@ Turan
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Kapaz – last 4
LWLL
5 Mar
vs Turan
0–2
L
27 Feb
vs Sumqayıt
3–0
W
22 Feb
@ Sabah FA
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Neftchi Baku
1–3
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Zira and Kapaz.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Zira vs Kapaz?
On our numbers Zira have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Kapaz 11%.
How many goals will there be in Zira vs Kapaz?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Zira vs Kapaz?
Our predicted score is Zira 1–0 Kapaz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Zira vs Kapaz?
Zira vs Kapaz (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Monday 9 March 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Zira Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
