Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Neftchi Baku to win @ 1.91 – our chance 61% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNeftchi Baku to win ✗61% · @1.91
Double chanceNeftchi Baku or draw ✓82% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗82% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗17% · fair 5.73
Keshla FC vs Neftchi Baku preview and prediction
The match
The Premyer Liqa sees Keshla FC take on Neftchi Baku on Saturday 28 February, kicking off at 11:30 (WAT) at Shamakhi City Stadium. Keshla FC are 7th with 14 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Neftchi Baku sit 1st on 24 points (top of the table).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 0.6 for Keshla FC and 1.5 for Neftchi Baku. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Keshla FC 18%, draw 21%, Neftchi Baku 61%.
Safer route: Neftchi Baku or draw (82%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.57.
Value angle: Neftchi Baku to win at 1.91 – 61% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Neftchi Baku or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Keshla FC 0–1 Neftchi Baku. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Keshla FC18%fair 5.66 · @4.10
Draw21%fair 4.78 · @2.95
Neftchi Baku61%fair 1.63 · @1.91
2.17Expected goals
0.64Keshla FC xG
1.54Neftchi Baku xG
50%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–117%
0–213%
0–011%
1–111%
1–29%
1–07%
From our goals model: Keshla FC 0.6 – 1.5 Neftchi Baku expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Neftchi Baku to win✗
61%
1.63
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Neftchi Baku or draw✓
82%
1.21
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.60
1.53
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
82%
1.21
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Neftchi Baku / FT Neftchi Baku✗
36%
2.79
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
17%
5.73
–
Form
Keshla FC – last 2
DD
22 Feb
@ Mil-Muğan
0–0
D
16 Feb
vs Turan
0–0
D
0.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Neftchi Baku – last 1
W
15 Feb
@ Kapaz
3–1
W
3.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Keshla FC and Neftchi Baku.
What is the prediction for Keshla FC vs Neftchi Baku?
Our pick is Neftchi Baku or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Keshla FC vs Neftchi Baku?
On our numbers Keshla FC have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Neftchi Baku 61%.
How many goals will there be in Keshla FC vs Neftchi Baku?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Keshla FC vs Neftchi Baku?
Our predicted score is Keshla FC 0–1 Neftchi Baku, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Keshla FC vs Neftchi Baku?
Keshla FC vs Neftchi Baku (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 11:30 (West Africa Time) at Shamakhi City Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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