Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 58% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAraz to win ✓37% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓9% · fair 10.71
Araz vs Sumqayıt preview and prediction
The match
The Premyer Liqa sees Araz take on Sumqayıt on Sunday 15 February, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT) at Liv Bona Dea Arena. Araz are 12th with 4 points from 11 games (in the bottom three), while Sumqayıt sit 9th on 10 points (in the bottom half).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.3 for Araz and 1.3 for Sumqayıt. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Araz 37%, draw 26%, Sumqayıt 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.95 – 58% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 69% chance at odds of 1.48. Predicted score: Araz 1–1 Sumqayıt. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Araz37%fair 2.69 · @2.70
Draw26%fair 3.86 · @2.85
Sumqayıt37%fair 2.71 · @2.65
2.66Expected goals
1.33Araz xG
1.33Sumqayıt xG
58%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Araz 1.3 – 1.3 Sumqayıt expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Araz to win✓
37%
2.69
2.70
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.74
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.46
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.15
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Araz / FT Araz✓
21%
4.66
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
9%
10.71
–
Form
Araz
No recent results on record.
Sumqayıt
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Araz and Sumqayıt.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Araz vs Sumqayıt?
On our numbers Araz have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Sumqayıt 37%.
How many goals will there be in Araz vs Sumqayıt?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Araz vs Sumqayıt?
Our predicted score is Araz 1–1 Sumqayıt, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Araz vs Sumqayıt?
Araz vs Sumqayıt (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Liv Bona Dea Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
