The Premyer Liqa sees Kapaz take on Neftchi Baku on Sunday 15 February, kicking off at 11:30 (WAT). Kapaz are 6th with 17 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Neftchi Baku sit 1st on 24 points (top of the table).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 0.6 for Kapaz and 1.9 for Neftchi Baku. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Kapaz 11%, draw 20%, Neftchi Baku 69%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.05.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Neftchi Baku to win – a 69% chance at odds of 1.50, above our fair price of 1.44, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Kapaz 0–1 Neftchi Baku. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Kapaz11%fair 9.52 · @6.20
Draw20%fair 4.98 · @3.60
Neftchi Baku69%fair 1.44 · @1.50
2.53Expected goals
0.59Kapaz xG
1.94Neftchi Baku xG
52%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
0–215%
0–310%
1–19%
1–29%
0–08%
From our goals model: Kapaz 0.6 – 1.9 Neftchi Baku expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Neftchi Baku to win✓
69%
1.44
1.50
Double chance
Neftchi Baku or draw✓
89%
1.12
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.94
2.05 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.87
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
75%
1.34
1.25
Half-time result
Neftchi Baku ahead at half-time✓
49%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Neftchi Baku / FT Neftchi Baku✓
45%
2.23
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.48
–
Form
Kapaz
No recent results on record.
Neftchi Baku
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Kapaz and Neftchi Baku.
Our pick is Neftchi Baku to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Kapaz vs Neftchi Baku?
On our numbers Kapaz have a 11% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Neftchi Baku 69%.
How many goals will there be in Kapaz vs Neftchi Baku?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Kapaz vs Neftchi Baku?
Our predicted score is Kapaz 0–1 Neftchi Baku, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Kapaz vs Neftchi Baku?
Kapaz vs Neftchi Baku (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 11:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
