Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultQarabag to win ✗67% · @1.25
Double chanceQarabag or draw ✗86% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.25
Kapaz vs Qarabag preview and prediction
The match
The Premyer Liqa sees Kapaz take on Qarabag on Friday 20 March, kicking off at 12:00 (WAT). Kapaz are 6th with 17 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Qarabag sit 4th on 19 points (in the top four). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Kapaz's last 5: DDLWL Most recently they drew with Turan 1–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Qarabag's last 5: WWDLL Most recently they beat Araz 6–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game.
Qarabag arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 0.8 for Kapaz and 2.1 for Qarabag. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 57% and both teams to score at 56%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Kapaz 14%, draw 19%, Qarabag 67%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.95 – 56% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Kapaz 0–2 Qarabag. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Kapaz14%fair 7.16 · @10.00
Draw19%fair 5.27 · @4.75
Qarabag67%fair 1.49 · @1.25
2.91Expected goals
0.82Kapaz xG
2.09Qarabag xG
56%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–212%
0–111%
1–210%
1–19%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: Kapaz 0.8 – 2.1 Qarabag expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Qarabag to win✗
67%
1.49
1.25
Double chance
Qarabag or draw✗
86%
1.16
1.01
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.80
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.48
Half-time result
Qarabag ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Qarabag / FT Qarabag✗
43%
2.31
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.25
–
Form
Kapaz – last 6
DDLWLL
15 Mar
vs Turan
1–1
D
9 Mar
@ Zira
2–2
D
5 Mar
vs Turan
0–2
L
27 Feb
vs Sumqayıt
3–0
W
22 Feb
@ Sabah FA
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Neftchi Baku
1–3
L
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Qarabag – last 6
WWDLLW
8 Mar
vs Araz
6–0
W
4 Mar
vs Keshla FC
3–1
W
1 Mar
vs Sabah FA
3–3
D
24 Feb
@ Newcastle
2–3
L
18 Feb
vs Newcastle
1–6
L
14 Feb
@ Mil-Muğan
1–0
W
2.7Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Kapaz and Qarabag.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Kapaz vs Qarabag?
On our numbers Kapaz have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Qarabag 67%.
How many goals will there be in Kapaz vs Qarabag?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Kapaz vs Qarabag?
Our predicted score is Kapaz 0–2 Qarabag, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Kapaz vs Qarabag?
Kapaz vs Qarabag (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Friday 20 March 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
