Value bet: Leones Negros to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultCimarrones to win43% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win78% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score60% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals77% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29% · fair 11.36
Leones Negros vs Cimarrones preview and prediction
The match
Cimarrones travel to Estadio Club Deportivo Universidad de Guadalajara in the Liga Premier Serie A on Saturday 7 March (17:00 WAT) to face Leones Negros.
Form guide
Cimarrones's last 3: WDW Most recently they beat Los Cabos United 2–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.3 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.3 for Leones Negros and 1.5 for Cimarrones. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 60%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Leones Negros to win at 3.10 – 35% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Leones Negros 1–1 Cimarrones. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leones Negros35%fair 2.87 · @3.10
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.50
Cimarrones43%fair 2.34 · @2.00
2.75Expected goals
1.29Leones Negros xG
1.46Cimarrones xG
60%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Leones Negros 1.3 – 1.5 Cimarrones expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cimarrones to win
43%
2.34
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win
78%
1.29
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
60%
1.67
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
77%
1.30
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
54%
1.84
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
67%
1.49
1.45
Half-time result
Level at half-time
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cimarrones / FT Cimarrones
24%
4.12
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
9%
11.36
–
Form
Leones Negros – last 1
L
17 Feb
@ Durango
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Cimarrones – last 3
WDW
28 Feb
vs Los Cabos United
2–0
W
22 Feb
@ Tigres de Alica
1–1
D
13 Feb
vs Tritons Vallarta
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leones Negros and Cimarrones.
What is the prediction for Leones Negros vs Cimarrones?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Leones Negros vs Cimarrones?
On our numbers Leones Negros have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Cimarrones 43%.
How many goals will there be in Leones Negros vs Cimarrones?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones Negros vs Cimarrones?
Our predicted score is Leones Negros 1–1 Cimarrones, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Leones Negros vs Cimarrones?
Leones Negros vs Cimarrones (Liga Premier Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Club Deportivo Universidad de Guadalajara.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Correcaminos UAT II
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