Value bet: Alcione to win @ 3.85 – our chance 31% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNovara to win ✓45% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓63% · fair 1.58
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.65
Novara vs Alcione preview and prediction
The match
The Serie C Girone A sees Novara take on Alcione on Sunday 22 March, kicking off at 14:30 (WAT) at Stadio Silvio Piola. Novara are 14th with 13 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Alcione sit 8th on 18 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Novara's last 5: DWDWW Most recently they drew with Lecco 0–0 away. They average 1.4 scored and 0.4 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Alcione's last 3: DDW Most recently they drew with Union Brescia 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Novara arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.7 goals: 1.0 for Novara and 0.7 for Alcione. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 75% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Novara 45%, draw 24%, Alcione 31%.
Value angle: Alcione to win at 3.85 – 31% on our numbers against 26% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Either team to win – a 76% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Novara 1–0 Alcione. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Novara45%fair 2.21 · @2.05
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @2.80
Alcione31%fair 3.26 · @3.85
1.73Expected goals
1.00Novara xG
0.73Alcione xG
37%Both score
25%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–018%
1–018%
0–113%
1–113%
2–09%
2–16%
From our goals model: Novara 1.0 – 0.7 Alcione expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Novara to win✓
45%
2.21
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.33
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
52%
1.94
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
54%
1.87
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
25%
3.96
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.65
–
Form
Novara – last 5
DWDWW
15 Mar
@ Lecco
0–0
D
3 Mar
@ Virtus Verona
2–0
W
27 Feb
@ Arzignano Valchiampo
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Giana Erminio
3–1
W
15 Feb
@ Triestina
1–0
W
1.4Scored / game
0.4Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Alcione – last 3
DDW
13 Mar
vs Union Brescia
0–0
D
3 Mar
vs Giana Erminio
1–1
D
15 Feb
@ Vicenza Virtus
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Novara and Alcione.
Our pick is Either team to win with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Novara vs Alcione?
On our numbers Novara have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Alcione 31%.
How many goals will there be in Novara vs Alcione?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 25% likely and both teams score 37% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Novara vs Alcione?
Our predicted score is Novara 1–0 Alcione, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Novara vs Alcione?
Novara vs Alcione (Serie C Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Silvio Piola.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Pro Patria1
Inter U231