Value bet: Navalcarnero to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultRSD Alcalá to win ✓41% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · fair 1.94
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓11% · fair 8.72
RSD Alcalá vs Navalcarnero preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda División RFEF Group 5 sees RSD Alcalá take on Navalcarnero on Sunday 22 March, kicking off at 12:00 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val. RSD Alcalá are 13th with 10 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Navalcarnero sit 7th on 16 points (in the top half).
Form guide
RSD Alcalá's last 3: LWL Most recently they lost to Tenerife II 0–3 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Navalcarnero's last 5: WLWLW Most recently they beat Elche II 2–1 at home. They average 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded.
Navalcarnero arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for RSD Alcalá and 1.1 for Navalcarnero. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 48%.
Value angle: Navalcarnero to win at 3.10 – 35% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 58% chance at odds of 1.55. Predicted score: RSD Alcalá 1–1 Navalcarnero. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
RSD Alcalá41%fair 2.45 · @2.15
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.00
Navalcarnero35%fair 2.88 · @3.10
2.40Expected goals
1.26RSD Alcalá xG
1.14Navalcarnero xG
48%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: RSD Alcalá 1.3 – 1.1 Navalcarnero expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
RSD Alcalá to win✓
41%
2.45
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.94
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.74
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT RSD Alcalá / FT RSD Alcalá✗
23%
4.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
11%
8.72
–
Form
RSD Alcalá – last 3
LWL
15 Mar
@ Tenerife II
0–3
L
1 Mar
vs Socuéllamos
3–1
W
15 Feb
vs Orihuela
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Navalcarnero – last 5
WLWLW
15 Mar
vs Elche II
2–1
W
8 Mar
@ Socuéllamos
0–1
L
1 Mar
vs Real Madrid III
2–0
W
22 Feb
@ Orihuela
0–4
L
15 Feb
vs Intercity
3–1
W
1.4Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between RSD Alcalá and Navalcarnero.
What is the prediction for RSD Alcalá vs Navalcarnero?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win RSD Alcalá vs Navalcarnero?
On our numbers RSD Alcalá have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Navalcarnero 35%.
How many goals will there be in RSD Alcalá vs Navalcarnero?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for RSD Alcalá vs Navalcarnero?
Our predicted score is RSD Alcalá 1–1 Navalcarnero, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is RSD Alcalá vs Navalcarnero?
RSD Alcalá vs Navalcarnero (Segunda División RFEF Group 5) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Tenerife II1
Intercity1
Rayo Majadahonda1
Colonia Moscardó1
Las Palmas II2
Elche II2
Fuenlabrada3
Socuéllamos3
Quintanar del Rey1
Rayo Vallecano II0
Orihuela0
CD Coria1