Mérida AD travel to Estadio Municipal de Fadura in the Primera División RFEF Group 1 on Friday 24 April (19:30 WAT) to face Arenas Getxo. Arenas Getxo are 19th with 11 points from 11 games (in the bottom three), while Mérida AD sit 8th on 16 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Arenas Getxo's last 5: WWDDW Most recently they beat Pontevedra 1–0 at home. They average 1.4 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Mérida AD's last 4: WDLW Most recently they beat Arenteiro 2–0 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Arenas Getxo and 1.3 for Mérida AD. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Arenas Getxo 38%, draw 24%, Mérida AD 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.80.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Arenas Getxo 1–1 Mérida AD. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Arenas Getxo38%fair 2.65 · @2.60
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.10
Mérida AD38%fair 2.63 · @2.55
2.54Expected goals
1.27Arenas Getxo xG
1.27Mérida AD xG
56%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: Arenas Getxo 1.3 – 1.3 Mérida AD expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mérida AD to win✗
38%
2.63
2.55
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.78
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mérida AD / FT Mérida AD✗
21%
4.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
9.98
–
Form
Arenas Getxo – last 5
WWDDW
8 Apr
vs Pontevedra
1–0
W
5 Apr
@ Arenteiro
2–1
W
22 Mar
@ Lugo
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Athletic Club II
1–1
D
1 Mar
vs Barakaldo
2–1
W
1.4Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
80%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Mérida AD – last 4
WDLW
19 Apr
@ Arenteiro
2–0
W
20 Mar
@ Athletic Club II
1–1
D
13 Mar
vs Guadalajara
1–4
L
22 Feb
vs Cacereño
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arenas Getxo and Mérida AD.
What is the prediction for Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD?
On our numbers Arenas Getxo have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Mérida AD 38%.
How many goals will there be in Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD?
Our predicted score is Arenas Getxo 1–1 Mérida AD, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD?
Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Friday 24 April 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Fadura.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
