Algeciras host FC Cartagena in the Primera División RFEF Group 2 on Friday 1 May, with kick-off at 20:15 (WAT) at Estadio Nuevo Mirador. Algeciras are 13th with 14 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while FC Cartagena sit 8th on 16 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Algeciras's last 5: LDWWD Most recently they lost to Villarreal II 0–4 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
FC Cartagena's last 5: DDWWW Most recently they drew with Tarazona 0–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 0.4 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
FC Cartagena arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 0.9 for Algeciras and 1.0 for FC Cartagena. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 70% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Algeciras 35%, draw 27%, FC Cartagena 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 2.15.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 50% chance at odds of 2.15, above our fair price of 1.99, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Algeciras 1–1 FC Cartagena. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Algeciras35%fair 2.89 · @2.50
Draw27%fair 3.70 · @2.62
FC Cartagena38%fair 2.61 · @2.75
1.91Expected goals
0.92Algeciras xG
0.99FC Cartagena xG
50%Both score
30%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–015%
0–115%
1–014%
1–113%
0–27%
1–27%
From our goals model: Algeciras 0.9 – 1.0 FC Cartagena expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC Cartagena to win✗
38%
2.61
2.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
73%
1.37
1.40
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
1.99
2.15 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
87%
1.15
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
51%
1.96
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
23%
4.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.82
–
Form
Algeciras – last 6
LDWWDL
12 Apr
@ Villarreal II
0–4
L
5 Apr
vs Ibiza
0–0
D
28 Mar
@ Europa Fc
3–0
W
22 Mar
vs Gimnastic
1–0
W
15 Mar
@ Alcorcon
0–0
D
11 Mar
@ Antequera
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
FC Cartagena – last 5
DDWWW
8 Mar
@ Tarazona
0–0
D
1 Mar
vs Sabadell
0–0
D
25 Feb
vs Sevilla Atletico
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Real Murcia
2–1
W
15 Feb
vs Marbella
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
0.4Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Algeciras and FC Cartagena.
What is the prediction for Algeciras vs FC Cartagena?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.15.
Who will win Algeciras vs FC Cartagena?
On our numbers Algeciras have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 27% and FC Cartagena 38%.
How many goals will there be in Algeciras vs FC Cartagena?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 30% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Algeciras vs FC Cartagena?
Our predicted score is Algeciras 1–1 FC Cartagena, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Algeciras vs FC Cartagena?
Algeciras vs FC Cartagena (Primera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nuevo Mirador.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
