Good pick · fair odds 1.47 · bookmaker 1.38 · Won ✓
7/10Rating
1.38Odds
2
Value bet: Teruel to win @ 3.75 – our chance 28% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlgeciras to win ✗47% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.53
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓68% · @1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.17
Algeciras vs Teruel preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División RFEF Group 2 sees Algeciras take on Teruel on Sunday 1 March, kicking off at 18:15 (WAT) at Estadio Nuevo Mirador. Algeciras are 13th with 14 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Teruel sit 20th on 7 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Teruel's last 3: DWW Most recently they drew with Juventud Torremolinos 2–2 away. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.2 for Algeciras and 0.8 for Teruel. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Algeciras 47%, draw 25%, Teruel 28%.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.53.
Value angle: Teruel to win at 3.75 – 28% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 68% chance at odds of 1.38. Predicted score: Algeciras 1–0 Teruel. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Algeciras47%fair 2.14 · @2.10
Draw25%fair 4.02 · @2.75
Teruel28%fair 3.52 · @3.75
1.97Expected goals
1.16Algeciras xG
0.81Teruel xG
47%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
0–014%
1–113%
0–111%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Algeciras 1.2 – 0.8 Teruel expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Algeciras to win✗
47%
2.14
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.33
1.33
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
1.62
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.38
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Algeciras / FT Algeciras✗
25%
4.00
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.17
–
Form
Algeciras – last 1
L
22 Feb
@ Marbella
1–4
L
1.0Scored / game
4.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Teruel – last 3
DWW
25 Feb
@ Juventud Torremolinos
2–2
D
22 Feb
vs Ibiza
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Sevilla Atletico
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Algeciras and Teruel.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Algeciras vs Teruel?
On our numbers Algeciras have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Teruel 28%.
How many goals will there be in Algeciras vs Teruel?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Algeciras vs Teruel?
Our predicted score is Algeciras 1–0 Teruel, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Algeciras vs Teruel?
Algeciras vs Teruel (Primera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 18:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nuevo Mirador.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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