Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Caen to win @ 1.91 – our chance 57% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCaen to win ✗57% · @1.91
Double chanceCaen or draw ✓84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.17
Caen vs Chateauroux preview and prediction
The match
Caen host Chateauroux in the National 1 on Friday 6 March, with kick-off at 19:30 (WAT) at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.6 for Caen and 0.7 for Chateauroux. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 48%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Caen 57%, draw 26%, Chateauroux 16%.
Safer route: Caen or draw (84%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Caen to win at 1.91 – 57% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Caen or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.20, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Caen 1–0 Chateauroux. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Caen57%fair 1.75 · @1.91
Draw26%fair 3.80 · @3.10
Chateauroux16%fair 6.09 · @3.50
2.26Expected goals
1.55Caen xG
0.71Chateauroux xG
48%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–013%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: Caen 1.6 – 0.7 Chateauroux expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Caen to win✗
57%
1.75
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Caen or draw✓
84%
1.20
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.92
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
81%
1.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Caen / FT Caen✗
35%
2.85
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.17
–
Form
Caen – last 2
LD
20 Feb
vs Sochaux
1–3
L
13 Feb
@ Dijon
3–3
D
2.0Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Chateauroux – last 2
LL
27 Feb
vs Gobelins
0–1
L
13 Feb
vs Rouen
1–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Caen and Chateauroux.
Our pick is Caen or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Caen vs Chateauroux?
On our numbers Caen have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Chateauroux 16%.
How many goals will there be in Caen vs Chateauroux?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Caen vs Chateauroux?
Our predicted score is Caen 1–0 Chateauroux, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Caen vs Chateauroux?
Caen vs Chateauroux (National 1) kicks off on Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Dijon1
Stade Briochin1