Value bet: Bari to win @ 2.94 – our chance 38% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBari to win ✓38% · @2.94
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.85
Bari vs Empoli preview and prediction
The match
The Serie B sees Bari take on Empoli on Wednesday 4 March, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Stadio San Nicola.
Form guide
Bari's last 3: WDL Most recently they beat Sampdoria 2–0 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Bari and 1.0 for Empoli. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Bari 38%, draw 28%, Empoli 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.77.
Value angle: Bari to win at 2.94 – 38% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Bari 1–1 Empoli. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bari38%fair 2.65 · @2.94
Draw28%fair 3.61 · @3.20
Empoli35%fair 2.89 · @2.40
2.35Expected goals
1.34Bari xG
1.01Empoli xG
57%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–110%
0–010%
2–19%
2–09%
From our goals model: Bari 1.3 – 1.0 Empoli expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bari to win✓
38%
2.65
2.94 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
72%
1.38
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.76
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bari / FT Bari✗
26%
3.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.85
–
Form
Bari – last 3
WDL
27 Feb
@ Sampdoria
2–0
W
21 Feb
@ Padova
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Sudtirol
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Empoli – last 2
DD
20 Feb
@ Frosinone
2–2
D
15 Feb
vs Reggiana
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bari and Empoli.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Bari vs Empoli?
On our numbers Bari have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Empoli 35%.
How many goals will there be in Bari vs Empoli?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bari vs Empoli?
Our predicted score is Bari 1–1 Empoli, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Bari vs Empoli?
Bari vs Empoli (Serie B) kicks off on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio San Nicola.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Frosinone2
Pescara2