Value bet: Pafos to win @ 2.95 – our chance 39% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPafos to win ✗39% · @2.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗9% · fair 10.89
Aris vs Pafos preview and prediction
The match
Aris host Pafos in the 1. Division on Sunday 1 March, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT) at Alphamega Stadium. Aris are 7th with 15 points from 9 games (in the top half), while Pafos sit 6th on 16 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.3 for Aris and 1.4 for Pafos. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 57%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Aris 37%, draw 24%, Pafos 39%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.65.
Value angle: Pafos to win at 2.95 – 39% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Aris 1–1 Pafos. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Aris37%fair 2.68 · @2.25
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @3.20
Pafos39%fair 2.59 · @2.95
2.70Expected goals
1.33Aris xG
1.36Pafos xG
57%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Aris 1.3 – 1.4 Pafos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pafos to win✗
39%
2.59
2.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pafos / FT Pafos✗
22%
4.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
9%
10.89
–
Form
Aris – last 1
D
20 Feb
@ Krasava Ypsonas
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Pafos – last 2
DW
21 Feb
vs Anorthosis
0–0
D
15 Feb
@ AEL
1–0
W
0.5Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Aris and Pafos.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Aris vs Pafos?
On our numbers Aris have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Pafos 39%.
How many goals will there be in Aris vs Pafos?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aris vs Pafos?
Our predicted score is Aris 1–1 Pafos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Aris vs Pafos?
Aris vs Pafos (1. Division) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Alphamega Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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