Portimonense B vs Moncarapachense prediction & analysis
64%
Footrivo pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
2
Value bet: Moncarapachense to win @ 2.75 – our chance 41% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMoncarapachense to win ✓41% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · fair 1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓58% · fair 1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.16
Portimonense B vs Moncarapachense preview and prediction
The match
The Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group D sees Portimonense B take on Moncarapachense on Sunday 15 March, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Campo Major David Neto 2.
Form guide
Portimonense B's last 4: WDLL Most recently they beat Comércio Indústria 1–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Moncarapachense's last 4: WWLD Most recently they beat Atlético Malveira 1–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Moncarapachense arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.0 for Portimonense B and 1.1 for Moncarapachense. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Portimonense B 34%, draw 25%, Moncarapachense 41%.
Value angle: Moncarapachense to win at 2.75 – 41% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Portimonense B 0–1 Moncarapachense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Portimonense B34%fair 2.92 · @2.40
Draw25%fair 4.08 · @3.00
Moncarapachense41%fair 2.43 · @2.75
2.06Expected goals
0.96Portimonense B xG
1.10Moncarapachense xG
42%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–113%
0–013%
1–012%
0–28%
1–27%
From our goals model: Portimonense B 1.0 – 1.1 Moncarapachense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Moncarapachense to win✓
41%
2.43
2.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Moncarapachense / FT Moncarapachense✓
22%
4.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.16
–
Form
Portimonense B – last 4
WDLL
8 Mar
@ Comércio Indústria
1–0
W
1 Mar
vs FC Serpa
0–0
D
22 Feb
@ Alcochetense
0–3
L
15 Feb
vs Oriental Lisboa
0–2
L
0.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Moncarapachense – last 4
WWLD
8 Mar
vs Atlético Malveira
1–0
W
1 Mar
@ Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Lagoa
1–2
L
15 Feb
vs Comércio Indústria
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Portimonense B and Moncarapachense.
What is the prediction for Portimonense B vs Moncarapachense?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Portimonense B vs Moncarapachense?
On our numbers Portimonense B have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Moncarapachense 41%.
How many goals will there be in Portimonense B vs Moncarapachense?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Portimonense B vs Moncarapachense?
Our predicted score is Portimonense B 0–1 Moncarapachense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Portimonense B vs Moncarapachense?
Portimonense B vs Moncarapachense (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group D) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Campo Major David Neto 2.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Louletano2
FC Serpa1