Value bet: Lajense to win @ 3.10 – our chance 38% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultLajense to win38% · @3.10
Double chanceEither team to win76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score56% · fair 1.79
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–112% · fair 8.53
Marinhense vs Lajense preview and prediction
The match
Lajense travel to Estádio Municipal da Marinha Grande in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C on Sunday 12 April (16:00 WAT) to face Marinhense.
Form guide
Marinhense's last 5: LLLDL Most recently they lost to Mortágua 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Lajense's last 5: LWDLD Most recently they lost to Naval 1893 1–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.1 for Marinhense and 1.1 for Lajense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 44%.
Value angle: Lajense to win at 3.10 – 38% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 61% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Marinhense 1–1 Lajense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Marinhense38%fair 2.64 · @2.15
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.10
Lajense38%fair 2.64 · @3.10
2.27Expected goals
1.13Marinhense xG
1.14Lajense xG
44%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–012%
0–010%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Marinhense 1.1 – 1.1 Lajense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lajense to win
38%
2.64
3.10 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
56%
1.79
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
61%
1.65
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
81%
1.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lajense / FT Lajense
20%
4.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
12%
8.53
–
Form
Marinhense – last 6
LLLDLW
29 Mar
@ Mortágua
0–1
L
22 Mar
@ UD da Serra
0–1
L
15 Mar
vs Benfica Castelo Branco
0–1
L
11 Mar
@ Os Marialvas
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Eléctrico
1–4
L
4 Mar
vs Naval 1893
2–1
W
0.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Lajense – last 6
LWDLDL
4 Apr
@ Naval 1893
1–2
L
22 Mar
vs Lusitânia
3–1
W
15 Mar
@ Mortágua
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs UD da Serra
0–1
L
1 Mar
@ Fátima
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Benfica Castelo Branco
2–3
L
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Marinhense and Lajense.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Marinhense vs Lajense?
On our numbers Marinhense have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Lajense 38%.
How many goals will there be in Marinhense vs Lajense?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Marinhense vs Lajense?
Our predicted score is Marinhense 1–1 Lajense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Marinhense vs Lajense?
Marinhense vs Lajense (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Municipal da Marinha Grande.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Lusitânia1
Oliveira Hospital2
Benfica Castelo Branco
Samora Correir
Eléctrico
Fátima