Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.75Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultMortágua to win ✓65% · @1.75
Double chanceMortágua or draw ✓88% · @1.12
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗62% · fair 1.62
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.55
Mortágua vs Peniche preview and prediction
The match
Mortágua host Peniche in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C on Sunday 22 February, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT) at Campo Gandarada.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.7 for Mortágua and 0.6 for Peniche. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 38%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mortágua 65%, draw 23%, Peniche 12%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Mortágua to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.75, above our fair price of 1.54, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Mortágua 1–0 Peniche. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mortágua65%fair 1.54 · @1.75
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.10
Peniche12%fair 8.49 · @4.60
2.23Expected goals
1.68Mortágua xG
0.55Peniche xG
38%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–015%
0–011%
1–110%
3–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Mortágua 1.7 – 0.6 Peniche expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mortágua to win✓
65%
1.54
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Mortágua or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.12
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mortágua / FT Mortágua✓
40%
2.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.55
–
Form
Mortágua – last 1
W
15 Feb
@ Oliveira Hospital
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Peniche
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mortágua and Peniche.
Our pick is Mortágua to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Mortágua vs Peniche?
On our numbers Mortágua have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Peniche 12%.
How many goals will there be in Mortágua vs Peniche?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 38% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mortágua vs Peniche?
Our predicted score is Mortágua 1–0 Peniche, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Mortágua vs Peniche?
Mortágua vs Peniche (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Campo Gandarada.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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