Value bet: Lusitânia to win @ 3.50 – our chance 31% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultOs Marialvas to win ✓44% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.40
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.54
Lusitânia vs Os Marialvas preview and prediction
The match
Os Marialvas travel to Campo de Jogos de São Mateus da Calheta in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C on Saturday 14 February (13:00 WAT) to face Lusitânia.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.1 for Lusitânia and 1.4 for Os Marialvas. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lusitânia 31%, draw 25%, Os Marialvas 44%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Lusitânia to win at 3.50 – 31% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 54% chance at odds of 1.95, above our fair price of 1.85, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Lusitânia 1–1 Os Marialvas. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lusitânia31%fair 3.20 · @3.50
Draw25%fair 4.03 · @2.70
Os Marialvas44%fair 2.28 · @2.10
2.45Expected goals
1.09Lusitânia xG
1.36Os Marialvas xG
54%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–09%
1–29%
0–09%
0–28%
From our goals model: Lusitânia 1.1 – 1.4 Os Marialvas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Os Marialvas to win✓
44%
2.28
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.40 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Os Marialvas / FT Os Marialvas✓
25%
4.01
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.54
–
Form
Lusitânia
No recent results on record.
Os Marialvas
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lusitânia and Os Marialvas.
What is the prediction for Lusitânia vs Os Marialvas?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Lusitânia vs Os Marialvas?
On our numbers Lusitânia have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Os Marialvas 44%.
How many goals will there be in Lusitânia vs Os Marialvas?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lusitânia vs Os Marialvas?
Our predicted score is Lusitânia 1–1 Os Marialvas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Lusitânia vs Os Marialvas?
Lusitânia vs Os Marialvas (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C) kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Campo de Jogos de São Mateus da Calheta.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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