Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
2
Value bet: Cinfães to win @ 3.60 – our chance 32% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlpendorada to win ✗44% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓58% · fair 1.73
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓65% · @1.50
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.75
Alpendorada vs Cinfães preview and prediction
The match
Alpendorada host Cinfães in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group B on Sunday 22 February, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT) at Estádio Municipal de Alpendorada. Alpendorada are 12th with 5 points from 7 games (in the bottom three), while Cinfães sit 10th on 6 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.1 for Alpendorada and 0.9 for Cinfães. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Value angle: Cinfães to win at 3.60 – 32% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Alpendorada 1–0 Cinfães. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alpendorada44%fair 2.28 · @2.05
Draw24%fair 4.23 · @2.88
Cinfães32%fair 3.08 · @3.60
2.03Expected goals
1.12Alpendorada xG
0.90Cinfães xG
42%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
1–113%
0–013%
0–112%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Alpendorada 1.1 – 0.9 Cinfães expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alpendorada to win✗
44%
2.28
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.33
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.02
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alpendorada / FT Alpendorada✗
23%
4.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.75
–
Form
Alpendorada – last 1
D
15 Feb
@ Florgrade
2–2
D
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Cinfães – last 1
D
15 Feb
vs Vila Meã
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alpendorada and Cinfães.
What is the prediction for Alpendorada vs Cinfães?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Alpendorada vs Cinfães?
On our numbers Alpendorada have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Cinfães 32%.
How many goals will there be in Alpendorada vs Cinfães?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alpendorada vs Cinfães?
Our predicted score is Alpendorada 1–0 Cinfães, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Alpendorada vs Cinfães?
Alpendorada vs Cinfães (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group B) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Municipal de Alpendorada.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Anadia0
Vila Real0
Aparecida1
Gouveia0
Leça3
Rebordosa3
Vila Meã0
Resende0