Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
2
Value bet: Alpendorada to win @ 3.20 – our chance 35% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFlorgrade to win ✗40% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗57% · fair 1.76
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗67% · @1.44
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.82
Florgrade vs Alpendorada preview and prediction
The match
The Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group B sees Florgrade take on Alpendorada on Sunday 15 February, kicking off at 16:00 (WAT) at Parque Do Bucaquinho. Florgrade are 7th with 11 points from 8 games (in the top half), while Alpendorada sit 12th on 5 points (in the bottom three).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 1.0 for Florgrade and 0.9 for Alpendorada. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 67% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Value angle: Alpendorada to win at 3.20 – 35% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 67% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Florgrade 1–0 Alpendorada. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Florgrade40%fair 2.48 · @2.15
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.00
Alpendorada35%fair 2.85 · @3.20
1.94Expected goals
1.02Florgrade xG
0.92Alpendorada xG
43%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
0–014%
1–113%
0–113%
2–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Florgrade 1.0 – 0.9 Alpendorada expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Florgrade to win✗
40%
2.48
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.33
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
57%
1.76
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
87%
1.15
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
51%
1.97
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
23%
4.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.82
–
Form
Florgrade
No recent results on record.
Alpendorada
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Florgrade and Alpendorada.
What is the prediction for Florgrade vs Alpendorada?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Florgrade vs Alpendorada?
On our numbers Florgrade have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Alpendorada 35%.
How many goals will there be in Florgrade vs Alpendorada?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Florgrade vs Alpendorada?
Our predicted score is Florgrade 1–0 Alpendorada, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Florgrade vs Alpendorada?
Florgrade vs Alpendorada (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group B) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Parque Do Bucaquinho.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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