Polonia Środa vs Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce prediction & analysis
80%
Footrivo pick
Polonia Środa or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Polonia Środa to win @ 1.85 – our chance 59% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPolonia Środa to win ✓59% · @1.85
Double chancePolonia Środa or draw ✓80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · fair 1.93
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 9.96
Polonia Środa vs Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce preview and prediction
The match
The III Liga Group 2 sees Polonia Środa take on Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce on Saturday 30 May, kicking off at 16:00 (WAT) at Stadion 700-lecia Środy Wielkopolskiej.
Form guide
Polonia Środa's last 5: WWLWL Most recently they beat Kluczevia Stargard 2–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce's last 5: WDLDL Most recently they beat Lech Poznań II 3–0 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Polonia Środa arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.9 for Polonia Środa and 1.0 for Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 52% of our simulations.
Value angle: Polonia Środa to win at 1.85 – 59% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Polonia Środa or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Polonia Środa 1–1 Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Polonia Środa59%fair 1.70 · @1.85
Draw21%fair 4.79 · @3.75
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce20%fair 4.90 · @3.25
2.95Expected goals
1.92Polonia Środa xG
1.03Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce xG
52%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
1–010%
2–110%
2–010%
3–16%
3–06%
From our goals model: Polonia Środa 1.9 – 1.0 Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Polonia Środa to win✓
59%
1.70
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Polonia Środa or draw✓
80%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Half-time result
Polonia Środa ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Polonia Środa / FT Polonia Środa✓
37%
2.73
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
9.96
–
Form
Polonia Środa – last 6
WWLWLL
23 May
@ Kluczevia Stargard
2–1
W
17 May
vs Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal
4–0
W
13 May
@ Noteć Czarnków
0–2
L
8 May
vs Tłuchowia
3–1
W
1 May
@ Wda Świecie
2–3
L
10 Apr
vs Unia Swarzędz
0–1
L
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce – last 6
WDLDLL
23 May
vs Lech Poznań II
3–0
W
13 May
vs Stargard Szczeciński
0–0
D
30 Apr
@ Luzino
3–4
L
19 Apr
vs Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal
0–0
D
4 Apr
vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz
0–1
L
28 Mar
@ Wda Świecie
1–3
L
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Polonia Środa and Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce.
What is the prediction for Polonia Środa vs Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce?
Our pick is Polonia Środa or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Polonia Środa vs Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce?
On our numbers Polonia Środa have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 20%.
How many goals will there be in Polonia Środa vs Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Polonia Środa vs Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce?
Our predicted score is Polonia Środa 1–1 Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Polonia Środa vs Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce?
Polonia Środa vs Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce (III Liga Group 2) kicks off on Saturday 30 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion 700-lecia Środy Wielkopolskiej.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Tłuchowia5
Cartusia Kartuzy0
Zawisza Bydgoszcz2