Value bet: SV Babelsberg 03 to win @ 1.95 – our chance 60% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSV Babelsberg 03 to win ✗60% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.38
SV Babelsberg 03 vs Luckenwalde preview and prediction
The match
SV Babelsberg 03 host Luckenwalde in the Regionalliga Nordost on Friday 17 April, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT) at Karl-Liebknecht-Stadion. SV Babelsberg 03 are 12th with 16 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Luckenwalde sit 18th on 8 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
SV Babelsberg 03's last 5: DWDWD Most recently they drew with Greifswalder FC 0–0 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Luckenwalde's last 5: LLLWL Most recently they lost to Hallescher FC 1–4 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
SV Babelsberg 03 arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.9 for SV Babelsberg 03 and 1.0 for Luckenwalde. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 59%.
Value angle: SV Babelsberg 03 to win at 1.95 – 60% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: SV Babelsberg 03 1–1 Luckenwalde. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
SV Babelsberg 0360%fair 1.67 · @1.95
Draw20%fair 5.08 · @3.55
Luckenwalde20%fair 4.90 · @3.30
2.88Expected goals
1.89SV Babelsberg 03 xG
0.98Luckenwalde xG
59%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–011%
1–110%
2–010%
2–110%
3–06%
3–16%
From our goals model: SV Babelsberg 03 1.9 – 1.0 Luckenwalde expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
SV Babelsberg 03 to win✗
60%
1.67
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.24
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.69
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
67%
1.48
1.38
Half-time result
SV Babelsberg 03 ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT SV Babelsberg 03 / FT SV Babelsberg 03✗
37%
2.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.38
–
Form
SV Babelsberg 03 – last 6
DWDWDW
8 Apr
@ Greifswalder FC
0–0
D
4 Apr
vs Hertha Zehlendorf
4–0
W
1 Apr
vs BFC Dynamo
2–2
D
27 Mar
vs BSG Chemie Leipzig
5–0
W
15 Mar
@ Altglienicke
1–1
D
6 Mar
vs Eilenburg
2–1
W
2.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Luckenwalde – last 6
LLLWLW
7 Apr
vs Hallescher FC
1–4
L
4 Apr
@ FC Carl Zeiss Jena
0–1
L
28 Mar
@ BFC Preussen
1–3
L
25 Mar
@ BFC Dynamo
1–0
W
22 Mar
@ BSG Chemie Leipzig
0–1
L
11 Mar
@ Altglienicke
2–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between SV Babelsberg 03 and Luckenwalde.
What is the prediction for SV Babelsberg 03 vs Luckenwalde?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win SV Babelsberg 03 vs Luckenwalde?
On our numbers SV Babelsberg 03 have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Luckenwalde 20%.
How many goals will there be in SV Babelsberg 03 vs Luckenwalde?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for SV Babelsberg 03 vs Luckenwalde?
Our predicted score is SV Babelsberg 03 1–1 Luckenwalde, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is SV Babelsberg 03 vs Luckenwalde?
SV Babelsberg 03 vs Luckenwalde (Regionalliga Nordost) kicks off on Friday 17 April 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Karl-Liebknecht-Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Hertha Zehlendorf1