Value bet: Persepam Madura Utd to win @ 3.10 – our chance 36% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPSIM Yogyakarta to win ✓42% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 10.37
PSIM Yogyakarta vs Persepam Madura Utd preview and prediction
The match
PSIM Yogyakarta host Persepam Madura Utd in the Liga 1 on Sunday 17 May, with kick-off at 13:00 (WAT) at Mandala Krida Stadium. PSIM Yogyakarta are 17th with 5 points from 9 games (in the bottom three), while Persepam Madura Utd sit 4th on 19 points (in the top four). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
PSIM Yogyakarta's last 5: WLDLL Most recently they beat Malut United 2–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Persepam Madura Utd's last 5: LWWLW Most recently they lost to Bhayangkara FC 1–3 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Persepam Madura Utd arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for PSIM Yogyakarta and 1.3 for Persepam Madura Utd. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 62%.
Value angle: Persepam Madura Utd to win at 3.10 – 36% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: PSIM Yogyakarta 1–1 Persepam Madura Utd. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
PSIM Yogyakarta42%fair 2.39 · @2.05
Draw23%fair 4.41 · @3.40
Persepam Madura Utd36%fair 2.82 · @3.10
2.68Expected goals
1.41PSIM Yogyakarta xG
1.27Persepam Madura Utd xG
62%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: PSIM Yogyakarta 1.4 – 1.3 Persepam Madura Utd expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
PSIM Yogyakarta to win✓
42%
2.39
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.61
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.36
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT PSIM Yogyakarta / FT PSIM Yogyakarta✓
24%
4.26
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
10.37
–
Form
PSIM Yogyakarta – last 6
WLDLLL
10 May
vs Malut United
2–0
W
30 Apr
vs Persita
0–1
L
22 Apr
vs Persija
1–1
D
17 Apr
@ Bhayangkara FC
1–2
L
10 Apr
vs PSM Makassar
1–2
L
3 Apr
@ Dewa United
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Persepam Madura Utd – last 6
LWWLWW
11 May
@ Bhayangkara FC
1–3
L
5 May
vs Bali United
2–0
W
29 Apr
@ Semen Padang
1–0
W
25 Apr
vs Dewa United
1–2
L
17 Apr
@ Persebaya Surabaya
2–1
W
11 Apr
vs Persik Kediri
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between PSIM Yogyakarta and Persepam Madura Utd.
What is the prediction for PSIM Yogyakarta vs Persepam Madura Utd?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win PSIM Yogyakarta vs Persepam Madura Utd?
On our numbers PSIM Yogyakarta have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Persepam Madura Utd 36%.
How many goals will there be in PSIM Yogyakarta vs Persepam Madura Utd?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for PSIM Yogyakarta vs Persepam Madura Utd?
Our predicted score is PSIM Yogyakarta 1–1 Persepam Madura Utd, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is PSIM Yogyakarta vs Persepam Madura Utd?
PSIM Yogyakarta vs Persepam Madura Utd (Liga 1) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Mandala Krida Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
