Arema FC vs Persebaya Surabaya preview and prediction
The match
Persebaya Surabaya travel to Stadion Kanjuruhan in the Liga 1 on Tuesday 28 April (09:30 WAT) to face Arema FC. Arema FC are 14th with 9 points from 9 games (in the bottom half), while Persebaya Surabaya sit 8th on 13 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Arema FC's last 5: DWWDL Most recently they drew with Persib Bandung 0–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Persebaya Surabaya's last 5: WLWDW Most recently they beat Malut United 2–0 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for Arema FC and 1.3 for Persebaya Surabaya. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Arema FC 41%, draw 23%, Persebaya Surabaya 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.65.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Arema FC 1–1 Persebaya Surabaya. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Arema FC41%fair 2.45 · @2.20
Draw23%fair 4.40 · @3.40
Persebaya Surabaya37%fair 2.74 · @2.85
2.69Expected goals
1.39Arema FC xG
1.30Persebaya Surabaya xG
60%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Arema FC 1.4 – 1.3 Persebaya Surabaya expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arema FC to win✗
41%
2.45
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.66
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
1.35
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arema FC / FT Arema FC✗
23%
4.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
10.61
–
Form
Arema FC – last 6
DWWDLL
24 Apr
@ Persib Bandung
0–0
D
18 Apr
vs Persis Solo
2–0
W
10 Apr
@ Persita
1–0
W
3 Apr
vs Malut United
1–1
D
10 Mar
@ Bhayangkara FC
1–2
L
6 Mar
vs Bali United
3–4
L
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Persebaya Surabaya – last 6
WLWDWL
23 Apr
@ Malut United
2–0
W
17 Apr
vs Persepam Madura Utd
1–2
L
4 Apr
vs Persita
1–0
W
2 Mar
vs Persib Bandung
2–2
D
25 Feb
vs PSM Makassar
1–0
W
14 Feb
vs Bhayangkara FC
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arema FC and Persebaya Surabaya.
What is the prediction for Arema FC vs Persebaya Surabaya?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Arema FC vs Persebaya Surabaya?
On our numbers Arema FC have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Persebaya Surabaya 37%.
How many goals will there be in Arema FC vs Persebaya Surabaya?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arema FC vs Persebaya Surabaya?
Our predicted score is Arema FC 1–1 Persebaya Surabaya, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Arema FC vs Persebaya Surabaya?
Arema FC vs Persebaya Surabaya (Liga 1) kicks off on Tuesday 28 April 2026 at 09:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Kanjuruhan.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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