Value bet: Malut United to win @ 1.75 – our chance 62% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMalut United to win ✗62% · @1.75
Double chanceMalut United or draw ✗81% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.15
Malut United vs Persebaya Surabaya preview and prediction
The match
The Liga 1 sees Malut United take on Persebaya Surabaya on Thursday 23 April, kicking off at 13:00 (WAT) at Stadion Gelora Kie Raha. Malut United are 7th with 13 points from 9 games (in the top half), while Persebaya Surabaya sit 8th on 13 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Malut United's last 5: LLDDW Most recently they lost to Bali United 1–4 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Persebaya Surabaya's last 5: LWDWL Most recently they lost to Persepam Madura Utd 1–2 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Persebaya Surabaya arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.4 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.9 for Malut United and 0.9 for Persebaya Surabaya. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 56%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Malut United 62%, draw 20%, Persebaya Surabaya 19%.
Safer route: Malut United or draw (81%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Malut United to win at 1.75 – 62% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Malut United 2–0 Persebaya Surabaya. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Malut United62%fair 1.62 · @1.75
Draw20%fair 5.10 · @3.55
Persebaya Surabaya19%fair 5.40 · @4.00
2.88Expected goals
1.94Malut United xG
0.94Persebaya Surabaya xG
56%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–011%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%
From our goals model: Malut United 1.9 – 0.9 Persebaya Surabaya expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Malut United to win✗
62%
1.62
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Malut United or draw✗
81%
1.23
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.86
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.36
Half-time result
Malut United ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Malut United / FT Malut United✗
39%
2.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.15
–
Form
Malut United – last 6
LLDDWL
19 Apr
@ Bali United
1–4
L
12 Apr
vs Dewa United
1–2
L
3 Apr
@ Arema FC
1–1
D
7 Mar
vs PSM Makassar
3–3
D
3 Mar
@ Persepam Madura Utd
2–1
W
24 Feb
vs Persija
2–3
L
1.7Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Persebaya Surabaya – last 5
LWDWL
17 Apr
vs Persepam Madura Utd
1–2
L
4 Apr
vs Persita
1–0
W
2 Mar
vs Persib Bandung
2–2
D
25 Feb
vs PSM Makassar
1–0
W
14 Feb
vs Bhayangkara FC
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Malut United and Persebaya Surabaya.
What is the prediction for Malut United vs Persebaya Surabaya?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Malut United vs Persebaya Surabaya?
On our numbers Malut United have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Persebaya Surabaya 19%.
How many goals will there be in Malut United vs Persebaya Surabaya?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Malut United vs Persebaya Surabaya?
Our predicted score is Malut United 2–0 Persebaya Surabaya, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Malut United vs Persebaya Surabaya?
Malut United vs Persebaya Surabaya (Liga 1) kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Gelora Kie Raha.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
